Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:54:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce54…0084 other 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 479d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate51%22W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$5
world 36% +$6
politics 11% −$2
crypto 8% +$1
culture 4% $0
weather 1% $0
sports 1% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.7% -8.9% 67% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 12 +6.9% -3.3% 58% 17% -7.8%
≤90d 12 +6.9% -3.3% 58% 17% -7.8%
all 43 -0.8% -10.3% 51% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 5% -9.5%
10% -18.9% 2% -18.1%
15% -26.7% 2% -26.1%
20% -33.9% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

479d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses22 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage479d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $32 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 23 $55 +$1 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $7 +$1 +12%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $48 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $41 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $3 +$1 +56%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $4 $0 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $43 +$2 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 18 $8 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jun 27 $8 $0 +2%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 61–62°F on May 23? May 24 $8 $0 +3%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? May 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Karol Nawrocki win the most votes in the first round of the Polis May 20 $8 $0 +6%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? May 18 $8 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 16 $8 $0 -1%
Will Georgia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 15 $8 $0 -1%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? May 11 $8 +$1 +8%
Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April? May 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win by 25–49 seats? May 05 $5 $0 +8%
Will Trump pardon 250-499 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days? May 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 26 $4 $0 -4%
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times April 18–25? Apr 25 $5 $0 -3%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Apr 24 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Browns draft Abdul Carter? Apr 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? Apr 20 $5 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Mar 29 $12 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 21-28? Mar 26 $14 −$5 -40%
March Madness: Will 0 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4? Mar 26 $17 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 25? Mar 25 $16 +$1 +4%
Will 'Alto Knights' gross less than 5-7m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 22 $9 $0 -4%
Will Trump say "Fart" during Digital Asset Summit? Mar 21 $17 $0 +1%
Will Trump make English the national language? Mar 20 $15 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $32 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $32 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $5 12h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $32 12h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $37 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 13¢ $14 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $14 18h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $20 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $20 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 8d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 8d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 8d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 8d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $4 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $4 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $28 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $13 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $41 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 90¢ $44 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 90¢ $44 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $17 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $17 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $3 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 77¢ $3 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 77¢ $39 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 75¢ $41 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.00 · official $4.00 (match) · 114 history records