Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:27:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce57…785e politics 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 328d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate21%8W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% $0
world 26% $0
sports 15% $0
politics 15% $0
economics 3% $0
tech 3% $0
crypto 2% −$1
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 -1.1% -10.5% 17% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 6 -1.1% -10.5% 17% 0% -9.7%
all 38 -1.0% -10.5% 21% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 78% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

328d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses8 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage328d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $46 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $88 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $4 $0 -3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $10 $0 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $42 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 09 $6 $0 +6%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 11 $7 $0 -1%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 11 $49 $0 +0%
Will a dozen eggs be between $4.00-4.25 in July? Aug 11 $1 $0 +4%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 11 $6 $0 -0%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 11 $54 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 10 $6 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $122K August 4–10? Aug 10 $3 −$1 -43%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 10 $58 $0 +0%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Aug 10 $66 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 03 $5 $0 -0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 02 $3 $0 +2%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 01 $12 $0 -0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31? Aug 01 $11 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jul 28 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 27 $15 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 27 $14 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 27 $15 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 27 $14 $0 +0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jul 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 26 $12 $0 -1%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 25 $71 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 25 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $46 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $46 3h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $41 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $41 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $12 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $12 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 14d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $18 14d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $29 14d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $46 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 15d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $42 15d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $42 15d
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL No 98¢ $6 281d
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL No 91¢ $7 310d
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 98¢ $5 310d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $49 310d
Will a dozen eggs be between $4.00-4.25 in July? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 310d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $3 310d
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $6 310d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $49 311d
Will a dozen eggs be between $4.00-4.25 in July? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 311d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 112 history records