Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:15:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

CE 0xce5a…5dc7 other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$19 (-8%) realized −$19 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -60% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip

Net edge-64%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate25%1W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$45per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit20%portable

Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 54d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-63.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	3	-46.4%	-51.5%	33%	33%	-8.8%
≤90d	4	-59.8%	-63.6%	25%	25%	-24.4%
all	4	-59.8%	-63.6%	25%	25%	-24.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-63.6%	25%	-24.4%
10%	-67.1%	25%	-31.6%
15%	-70.3%	25%	-38.2%
20%	-73.2%	25%	-44.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -16% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -60% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$38 vs −$19 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.66 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage

Net worth$103

Realized−$19

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses1 / 3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage54d

Avg bet$45

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	10¢	10¢	$104	$103	−$0 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	Jun 09	$62	+$38	+61%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	Jun 09	$4	−$4	-95%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	Jun 09	$34	−$33	-97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 25?	Apr 23	$20	−$20	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$106	1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	BUY Yes	3¢	$4	8d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	BUY Yes	61¢	$62	8d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	BUY Yes	33¢	$34	8d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 25?	BUY No	82¢	$11	54d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 25?	BUY No	82¢	$9	54d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.16 · official $103.16 (match) · 7 history records