Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:29:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
CE 0xce5a…58b0 sports 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 413d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$14 (-2%) realized −$13 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip
Net edge+34%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%9W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days−$74
14 days−$43
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$1
other 33% +$29
crypto 10% $0
culture 3% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+34.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.6% -8.1% 40% 40% -34.1%
≤30d 9 +33.2% +20.5% 56% 56% -10.4%
≤90d 11 +55.5% +40.7% 64% 64% +0.9%
all 14 +48.5% +34.4% 64% 64% -0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +34.4% 64% -0.3%
10% +21.5% 64% -9.9%
15% +9.8% 64% -18.6%
20% -1.0% 50% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +49% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +96% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$42 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

413d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized−$13
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses9 / 5
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 22
History coverage413d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Germany 87¢ 86¢ $77 $76 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $20 −$20 -98%
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score AND Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Te Jun 27 $25 +$68 +270%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $77 +$29 +38%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 24 $49 −$49 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $52 +$51 +97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$25 +250%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $32 +$14 +44%
Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-04-04? Apr 07 $10 +$23 +226%
Will Turkey qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $37 +$31 +85%
Will Malta finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? Mar 26 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Mar 16 $10 +$6 +56%
Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Award Mar 16 $10 +$11 +113%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 87¢ $77 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-29 BUY 19¢ $25 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY South Africa 29¢ $20 16h
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score AND Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Te BUY 26¢ $25 43h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06- BUY 49¢ $51 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $77 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 27¢ $32 10d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 10d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score AND Will Canada win on BUY 40¢ $20 10d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 10d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score AND Will Portugal win on 2026 BUY 38¢ $31 11d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $52 13d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina vs. Algeria BUY $10 13d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 14d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $49 15d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Wi BUY 21¢ $51 15d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 17d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $32 18d
Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 85d
Will Turkey qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $37 95d
Will Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the 98th BUY Yes 64¢ $10 108d
Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Award BUY Yes 47¢ $10 108d
Will Malta finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? BUY Yes 46¢ $19 412d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.59 · official $99.86 · 35 history records