Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:55:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce5b…6630 crypto 768 markets active 16h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$438 (-1%) realized −$438 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate95%727W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day23.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$126
30 days−$530
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$376
weather 4% −$138
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -6.9% -15.7% 89% 7% -13.7%
≤30d 266 +0.1% -9.4% 94% 3% -12.2%
≤90d 768 -0.5% -10.0% 95% 4% -10.3%
all 768 -0.5% -10.0% 95% 4% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 4% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 1% -18.9%
15% -26.5% 1% -26.7%
20% -33.7% 1% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$38 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$438
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses727 / 41
Open positions0
Markets (closed)768 / 768
History coverage67d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day23.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 768 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$5 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 10 $74 −$70 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 09 $60 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 09 $60 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 09 $60 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 09 $60 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 09 $60 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 09 $60 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 09 $60 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 09 $60 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 09 $60 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 08 $60 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 08 $67 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 08 $73 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 08 $108 −$100 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 08 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 08 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 08 $59 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $11 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $11 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $11 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2363 history records