Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:57:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce60…f989 sports 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,420 (-36%) realized −$1,261 · open −$159
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%13W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day19.6pace
Fees−$80est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$1,523
crypto 8% −$105
other 3% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-38.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -32.3% -38.8% 27% 27% -45.5%
≤30d 48 -32.3% -38.8% 27% 27% -45.5%
≤90d 48 -32.3% -38.8% 27% 27% -45.5%
all 48 -32.3% -38.8% 27% 27% -45.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.8% 27% -45.5%
10% -44.6% 25% -50.7%
15% -50.0% 23% -55.5%
20% -54.9% 17% -59.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -80% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$62 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,261
Unrealized−$159
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses13 / 35
Est. fees paid−$80
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage6d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day19.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs XLG Gaming 16¢ 0¢ $160 $0 −$159 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Ilkley: Elizabeth Mandlik vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $77 −$77 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 15 $220 +$103 +47%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 15 $61 −$61 -100%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $288 −$282 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $202 −$198 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $345 −$338 -98%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 15 $212 −$61 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
ITF Wuning: Yujia Huang vs Ekaterina Maklakova Jun 15 $61 −$61 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 15 $62 −$62 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 15 $62 −$36 -58%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 15 $189 −$189 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $118 −$118 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 15 $135 −$135 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 15 $107 −$107 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $153 +$169 +111%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $112 −$9 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$6 +23%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $31 +$29 +94%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 −$17 -16%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $152 +$33 +22%
ITF Cuiaba: Luiza Fullana vs Marjorie Souza Jun 11 $6 +$8 +128%
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini Jun 11 $32 +$13 +41%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $21 +$81 +396%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$23 +89%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $237 +$127 +54%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 11 $10 +$6 +58%
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $182 −$60 -33%
Bratislava: Maxim Mrva vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 11 $77 −$7 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $51 +$22 +44%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $20 +$66 +321%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Team Heretics win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 10 $30 −$7 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 16¢ $67 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 16¢ $66 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 16¢ $15 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 17¢ $16 1h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Bruno Fernandez 36¢ $288 18h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 37¢ $202 19h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 20¢ $151 22h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 22¢ $51 22h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 38¢ $41 24h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 38¢ $102 24h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 27¢ $6 3d
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 38¢ $92 3d
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 48¢ $91 4d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Leviatán Esports 50¢ $235 4d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 17¢ $82 4d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Paper Rex 83¢ $86 4d
Ilkley: Elizabeth Mandlik vs Dalma Galfi BUY Dalma Galfi 35¢ $41 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 18¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 44¢ $50 4d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 60¢ $71 4d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 43¢ $52 4d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 31¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 33¢ $20 4d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 32¢ $10 4d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 67¢ $71 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $32 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 4d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 66¢ $59 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 33¢ $85 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.50 · official $0.50 (match) · 159 history records