Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:07:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CE 0xce68…f6b8 crypto 862 markets active 7h ago coverage 136d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 136d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,374 (-7%) realized −$2,372 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate26%227W / 642L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day24.0pace
Fees−$241est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$197
7 days−$208
14 days−$683
30 days−$4,368
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% −$1,018
sports 29% −$305
crypto 21% −$2,384
other 16% +$559
finance 2% −$550
politics 1% −$114
economics 0% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -28.0% -34.8% 33% 33% -26.9%
≤30d 592 -16.2% -24.2% 23% 22% -31.0%
≤90d 730 -10.4% -18.9% 25% 24% -26.1%
all 869 -7.4% -16.3% 26% 25% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.3% 25% -21.5%
10% ← realistic here -24.3% 23% -29.0%
15% -31.6% 20% -35.8%
20% -38.3% 19% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$18 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$2,372
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses227 / 642
Est. fees paid−$241
Open positions1
Markets (closed)869 / 862
History coverage136d ⚠
Avg bet$38
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 869 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $38 $35 −$2 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 490 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Gold close between $4100 and $4200 at the end of 2025? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 19 $1 +$2 +208%
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? Jun 18 $18 −$17 -89%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 18 $1 $0 -5%
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $7 +$1 +19%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $80 −$5 -6%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $37 −$37 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $64 −$31 -49%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $12 −$6 -53%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $15 +$8 +54%
Game Handicap: T1.A (-2.5) vs Nongshim Esports Academy (+2.5) Jun 17 $10 +$26 +256%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $13 +$2 +14%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $5 +$9 +169%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $75 +$39 +51%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $131 −$20 -15%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $52 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -94%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$8 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -95%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $14 $0 -3%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $58 +$42 +73%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $149 +$22 +15%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $18 −$15 -82%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $109 +$37 +33%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $65 −$30 -46%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 12 $3 +$7 +197%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $8 +$2 +29%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$5 +93%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $5 +$5 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 7h
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 19h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 2¢ $1 22h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 9¢ $1 22h
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 22h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 28¢ $9 22h
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 22h
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 22h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $13 22h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $13 22h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $25 22h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $24 22h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 11¢ $11 23h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 23h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 33¢ $13 23h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $13 23h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 52¢ $13 23h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $13 23h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 0¢ $0 23h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 0¢ $1 23h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 9¢ $1 23h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 47¢ $29 24h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 62¢ $31 24h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 27¢ $40 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.40 · official $35.40 (match) · 3500 history records