Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:43:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce69…1bd2 crypto 362 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$107 (-2%) realized −$107 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate48%166W / 183L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$95
14 days−$9
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% +$313
other 21% −$142
politics 7% −$44
sports 6% +$135
world 4% −$128
finance 4% −$22
culture 2% −$7
weather 0% −$21
tech 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -44.4% -49.7% 29% 29% -16.7%
≤30d 75 -28.5% -35.3% 35% 35% -7.8%
≤90d 330 -18.2% -26.0% 46% 43% -9.7%
all 349 -13.6% -21.8% 48% 45% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 45% -8.3%
10% -29.3% 41% -17.1%
15% -36.1% 36% -25.1%
20% -42.4% 29% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$10 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$107
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses166 / 183
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)349 / 362
History coverage103d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 349 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $41 $42 +$2 (+4%)
Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? Yes 69¢ 70¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? Yes 40¢ 30¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain to score first vs. Uruguay? Jun 27 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $15 +$11 +70%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03? Jun 26 $9 −$2 -19%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$18 +89%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $10 −$8 -79%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $17 +$5 +28%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 24 $12 +$5 +37%
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 23 $2 $0 -22%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $75 +$22 +29%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $26 +$16 +60%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $25 −$16 -62%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $42 +$21 +50%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$21 -79%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Paloma Valencia place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 22 $19 −$19 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 22 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 22 $141 −$141 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $41 1h
Spain to score first vs. Uruguay? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 96¢ $16 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 13h
Spain to score first vs. Uruguay? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 14h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $25 14h
Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03? SELL Yes 48¢ $7 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 2d
Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03? BUY Yes 57¢ $9 2d
Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 13¢ $2 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 60¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 97¢ $22 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $9 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Endrick: 1+ goals AND S BUY 13¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $17 2d
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 72¢ $12 3d
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 9¢ $2 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 19¢ $26 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? A BUY 48¢ $61 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 86¢ $40 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 4d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY 30¢ $15 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 4d
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 23¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.98 · official $50.99 (match) · 877 history records