Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:04:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce6d…e415 other 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 254d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$23 (-2%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate20%9W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$20
world 23% −$3
politics 10% $0
sports 7% $0
finance 4% +$1
tech 4% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.4% -10.8% 14% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 11 -1.1% -10.5% 27% 9% -10.3%
≤90d 11 -1.1% -10.5% 27% 9% -10.3%
all 45 -2.9% -12.1% 20% 2% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 2% -11.3%
10% -20.5% 0% -19.8%
15% -28.2% 0% -27.6%
20% -35.3% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

254d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses9 / 36
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage254d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 97¢ 96¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $6 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $22 −$1 -7%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $6 $0 -3%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $57 +$1 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $11 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 02 $50 −$7 -15%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $42 +$6 +14%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $47 +$1 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Jan 31 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $73 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $17 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $86 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $3 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $65 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 23 $27 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 22 $19 $0 -0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 22 $19 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 21 $28 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 21 $12 $0 +0%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 23 $8 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October? Oct 23 $2 $0 -10%
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" in 2025? Oct 21 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 21 $21 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 21 $21 $0 +0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 21 $19 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 20 $20 −$2 -10%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 18 $21 $0 -1%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Oct 17 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 17 $18 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 14 $24 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 12 $23 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 10 $24 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $24 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $49 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 13h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $21 15h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $22 20h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 90¢ $3 27h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 90¢ $42 27h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 92¢ $46 28h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 32h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 32h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 36h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $44 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $9 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $51 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $11 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $11 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $35 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $35 3d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 35¢ $22 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 35¢ $1 26d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $19 26d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 60¢ $29 26d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 61¢ $13 26d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 71¢ $50 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $21 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $17 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.19 · official $49.19 (match) · 231 history records