Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:46:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce6e…1256 sports 113 markets active 1h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$438 (-7%) realized −$433 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%42W / 70L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$110est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$219
14 days−$120
30 days−$241
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$270
other 2% −$117
world 1% −$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -18.6% -26.3% 32% 32% -21.6%
≤30d 83 -6.5% -15.4% 39% 39% -14.3%
≤90d 112 -9.8% -18.4% 38% 38% -16.3%
all 112 -9.8% -18.4% 38% 38% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 38% -16.3%
10% -26.2% 38% -24.3%
15% -33.3% 38% -31.6%
20% -39.9% 38% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$45 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized−$433
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses42 / 70
Est. fees paid−$110
Open positions1
Markets (closed)112 / 113
History coverage49d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $91 $86 −$5 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $50 +$69 +137%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $74 −$54 -73%
Tiafoe vs. Shimabukuro: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 17 $48 +$40 +83%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $77 −$2 -3%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $59 −$58 -98%
Set Handicap: Hurkacz (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) Jun 17 $50 −$49 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $57 +$76 +133%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $27 −$27 -98%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $75 +$55 +73%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $75 −$74 -99%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $85 +$79 +93%
Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Hanfmann (+1.5) Jun 16 $38 +$32 +86%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $56 −$55 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $24 +$34 +141%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $50 +$91 +180%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $64 −$63 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $46 −$46 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $63 +$69 +109%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $29 −$29 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $28 $0 -1%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $90 −$88 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $50 −$50 -98%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 11 $51 −$49 -98%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $101 −$22 -22%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $45 −$2 -4%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 11 $47 −$47 -98%
Rinky Hijikata vs. Frances Tiafoe: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $38 −$37 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $38 −$37 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $75 +$69 +91%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 10 $60 −$58 -98%
James McCabe vs. Zizou Bergs: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $44 +$55 +125%
Tallon Griekspoor vs. Botic van de Zandschulp: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $50 +$63 +126%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $63 −$62 -99%
Kyrgios vs. Moutet: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 09 $50 +$53 +105%
Set Handicap: Halys (-1.5) vs Shimabukuro (+1.5) Jun 09 $48 −$47 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $75 +$83 +109%
Stuttgart Open: Tommy Paul vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Jun 08 $38 +$20 +53%
Set 1 Winner: Herbert vs Landaluce Jun 08 $44 +$50 +114%
Set 1 Winner: Bonzi vs Rottgering Jun 08 $46 −$46 -98%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Mees Rottgering Jun 08 $38 −$3 -8%
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5) Jun 05 $74 −$10 -13%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $72 −$71 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $73 +$96 +132%
Francisco Cerundolo vs. Zachary Svajda: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 30 $48 +$57 +119%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Learner Tien May 30 $84 −$82 -98%
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Faria (+1.5) May 30 $73 −$71 -98%
Set Handicap: Collignon (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5) May 30 $60 −$59 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin Landaluce May 30 $48 −$48 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $19 43m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $23 44m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $119 45m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $50 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 15¢ $20 1h
Tiafoe vs. Shimabukuro: Match O/U 23.5 SELL Under 100¢ $89 6h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 7h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $74 7h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery SELL Adrian Mannarino 55¢ $75 14h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 43¢ $59 15h
Set Handicap: Hurkacz (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) BUY Hurkacz 52¢ $50 16h
Tiafoe vs. Shimabukuro: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 54¢ $48 16h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 55¢ $77 16h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $134 16h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $27 26h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic SELL Ugo Humbert 100¢ $130 26h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 51¢ $75 26h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 42¢ $57 27h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $25 28h
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz SELL Hubert Hurkacz 100¢ $165 30h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Tallon Griekspoor 56¢ $56 40h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Ugo Humbert 57¢ $75 40h
Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Hanfmann (+1.5) BUY Hanfmann 53¢ $31 40h
Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Hanfmann (+1.5) BUY Hanfmann 53¢ $7 40h
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Hubert Hurkacz 51¢ $85 40h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $58 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $24 2d
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce SELL Terence Atmane 100¢ $141 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $64 2d
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Terence Atmane 35¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.83 · official $85.83 (match) · 206 history records