Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:08:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce71…467d other 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 427d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate38%12W / 20L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% $0
other 39% +$2
politics 7% $0
culture 3% $0
economics 3% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.4% -9.1% 29% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 13 -0.2% -9.7% 23% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 13 -0.2% -9.7% 23% 0% -9.7%
all 32 +1.8% -7.9% 38% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 3% -9.3%
10% -16.7% 3% -18.0%
15% -24.8% 3% -25.9%
20% -32.1% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

427d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses12 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage427d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 21 $39 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $41 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $41 +$1 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $16 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $41 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $21 −$1 -4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $41 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $60 −$1 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $20 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $42 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 10 $20 $0 -1%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Jul 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jul 09 $21 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 09 $43 $0 -0%
Will Nuno Mendes win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 09 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 09 $21 $0 +0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 08 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 4–11? Jul 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will Remco Evenepoel win the Tour de France 2025? Jul 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 07 $22 $0 -0%
Wimbledon: Sinner vs. Dimitrov Jul 07 $3 $0 +8%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jun 25 $19 $0 -2%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Jun 24 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? May 15 $5 +$2 +51%
Will Trump pardon CZ in his first 100 days? Apr 20 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $3 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $36 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $39 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $31 3h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $1 3h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $10 3h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $8 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $34 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 67¢ $7 33h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 67¢ $32 33h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 67¢ $3 33h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $41 37h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 42h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $8 42h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 43h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $12 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $12 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $40 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 98 history records