Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:48:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CE 0xce72…cbef crypto 426 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 59d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,905 (-9%) realized −$6,897 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate41%201W / 290L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$181per market
Trades / day54.9pace
Fees−$189est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$1,219now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 60d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$4,786
other 26% −$1,389
sports 18% −$120
world 6% −$45
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-34.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 -70.3% -73.1% 21% 15% -39.2%
≤30d 206 -42.3% -47.8% 38% 23% -27.9%
≤90d 491 -27.3% -34.2% 41% 27% -23.3%
all 491 -27.3% -34.2% 41% 27% -23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.2% 27% -23.3%
10% ← realistic here -40.5% 23% -30.6%
15% -46.3% 21% -37.3%
20% -51.5% 19% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -19% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$85 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$1,219
Realized−$6,897
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses201 / 290
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$189
Open positions2
Markets (closed)491 / 426
History coverage60d ⚠
Avg bet$181
Trades / day54.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 491 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? No 91¢ 90¢ $1,124 $1,118 −$6 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $103 $101 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 262 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 21 $204 −$204 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 21 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 21 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 21 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 21 $350 −$350 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 21 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 21 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 21 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 21 $250 −$250 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 21 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 21 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 21 $1,698 −$1,698 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 21 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 21 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 21 $17 −$17 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $104 48m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 91¢ $1,127 49m
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $231 53m
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 58¢ $3 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $157 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 78¢ $1,154 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $1,329 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,329 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,188 15h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $1,188 16h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $1,062 19h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $1,001 23h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $100 23h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 94¢ $94 23h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $790 24h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 59¢ $485 24h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) SELL Germany 87¢ $1,300 24h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $124 24h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Germany 86¢ $373 24h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Germany 86¢ $20 24h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Germany 86¢ $37 24h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 58¢ $553 24h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $126 25h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) SELL Germany 87¢ $122 25h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Germany 87¢ $9 25h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Germany 87¢ $982 25h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 85¢ $825 25h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) SELL Ecuador 62¢ $189 25h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 84¢ $1,632 25h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 67¢ $76 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,218.79 · official $1,218.79 (match) · 3500 history records