Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:43:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce75…4277 other 243 markets active 0h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$69 (-0%) realized −$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 230L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$205per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$15
14 days−$27
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$35
sports 26% −$18
politics 10% −$9
culture 7% −$8
economics 6% −$5
crypto 4% −$2
world 3% −$4
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 73 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 181 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 243 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 230
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)243 / 243
History coverage129d
Avg bet$205
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 243 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $110 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $338 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $254 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $363 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $115 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $102 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 17 $211 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $482 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $130 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $332 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $287 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $290 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $404 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $264 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $543 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $51 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $107 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $418 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $256 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $325 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $311 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $239 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $388 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $296 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $271 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $212 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $474 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 12 $294 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $194 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $297 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $134 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $54 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $763 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $364 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $502 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $374 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $79 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 08 $431 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $119 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $363 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $424 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $116 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $336 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $247 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $307 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $49 22m
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $49 1h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $49 3h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $49 4h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $49 9h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $49 10h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $49 12h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $49 14h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $49 16h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $49 18h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $49 19h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $49 21h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $49 22h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 23h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 25h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 26h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $50 31h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $50 32h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 34h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 36h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 43h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 44h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $50 47h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $50 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $50 2d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $50 2d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1342 history records