Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:18:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce77…7fd5 crypto 110 markets active 7h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$123 (-8%) realized −$123 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%48W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days−$43
14 days−$97
30 days−$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$31
sports 28% −$133
other 4% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +6.2% -3.9% 32% 29% -32.8%
≤30d 62 -0.1% -9.6% 44% 40% -17.4%
≤90d 103 +6.8% -3.3% 47% 45% -18.7%
all 103 +6.8% -3.3% 47% 45% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.3% 45% -18.7%
10% -12.6% 39% -26.5%
15% -21.0% 34% -33.6%
20% -28.8% 27% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 40% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$123
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses48 / 55
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)103 / 110
History coverage55d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 103 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +24%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 $0 +3%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +40%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $1 +$11 +1116%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $2 +$16 +786%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 +$3 +48%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$4 +73%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +109%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 +$7 +70%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$5 +158%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -61%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $14 +$8 +60%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $13 +$2 +14%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 10 $81 −$64 -80%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 May 31 $2 +$1 +36%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner May 31 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner May 31 $4 +$1 +26%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $10 +$4 +44%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) May 31 $10 +$5 +46%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 31 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET May 31 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 31 $206 +$134 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 31 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 30 $64 +$9 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 AND BUY 34¢ $15 7h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 61¢ $0 8h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 61¢ $10 8h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $10 8h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 AND BUY 19¢ $3 9h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY 36¢ $1 10h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY 30¢ $10 11h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $5 11h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 13h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 13h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 13h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY 36¢ $10 16h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Ghan BUY 17¢ $2 34h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 34h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 34h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 34h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 21¢ $2 34h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 36h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 36h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 36h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 36h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 36h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 36h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 36h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 56¢ $5 38h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 38h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $6 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $10 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 217 history records