Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:59:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CE 0xce77…9d88 other 121 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$35 (+0%) realized +$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate11%13W / 108L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$268per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$23
14 days+$22
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$6
politics 29% −$12
sports 7% +$39
tech 5% −$2
crypto 4% −$1
economics 2% $0
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +41.1% +27.7% 20% 20% +4.8%
≤30d 12 +17.1% +5.9% 8% 8% -8.1%
≤90d 104 +7.8% -2.5% 9% 7% -9.3%
all 121 +5.0% -5.0% 11% 7% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 7% -9.4%
10% -14.1% 6% -18.1%
15% -22.4% 4% -26.0%
20% -30.0% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×10.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses13 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)121 / 121
History coverage116d
Avg bet$268
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 121 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $29 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 22 $27 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 22 $37 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $11 +$23 +206%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $40 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $286 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $49 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $27 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $562 −$1 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $31 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $35 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $216 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $417 −$1 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $292 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $234 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $560 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $247 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $1,225 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $243 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $234 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $247 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $488 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $212 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 13 $249 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $304 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $240 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $296 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $265 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $559 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $232 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 10 $295 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $274 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $834 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $245 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $302 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $248 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 05 $269 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $252 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $275 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $281 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $275 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $475 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $277 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $269 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $270 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $271 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $292 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $235 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 1h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 13h
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $27 26h
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $27 45h
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $37 45h
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $37 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $11 2d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $40 2d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $40 2d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $31 9d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $31 9d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $49 15d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $49 16d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $27 16d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 16d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $38 17d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 17d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $31 17d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 21d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 21d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 23d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $216 23d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $216 30d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $232 31d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $232 31d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $203 31d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $203 32d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $214 33d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $214 34d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $292 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 354 history records