Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:32:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CE 0xce79…c8bd crypto 124 markets active 1h ago coverage 623d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$42 (+0%) realized +$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate95%116W / 6L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$194per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 54% +$26
crypto 46% +$17
other 0% $0
tech 0% +$1
economics 0% +$2
world 0% +$1
sports 0% −$3
culture 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 7 +2.7% -7.1% 100% 14% -9.3%
≤90d 28 +1.2% -8.5% 100% 4% -9.4%
all 122 +0.3% -9.3% 95% 14% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 14% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 7% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 4% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.63 per $1 lost it wins $3.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

623d coverage
Net worth$116
Realized+$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses116 / 6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)122 / 124
History coverage623d
Avg bet$194
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $102 $102 −$0 (-0%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 14? Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 5? Jun 08 $101 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 05 $5 $0 +4%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $62 in May? May 31 $6 +$1 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 22? May 31 $174 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 21 $177 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 15? May 17 $177 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 5? May 14 $175 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Contr May 03 $4 $0 +4%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 03 $7 $0 +4%
Will Netflix reach $455 in April? May 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 02 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 29? May 02 $171 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on April 28? Apr 28 $174 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 22? Apr 27 $176 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 20? Apr 21 $172 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 15? Apr 19 $181 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on April 12? Apr 13 $181 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 6? Apr 08 $189 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in March? Apr 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 1? Apr 03 $169 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for math on March 31? Apr 01 $6 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $174 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 27? Mar 29 $170 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $176 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 22? Mar 23 $178 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 20? Mar 21 $167 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 18? Mar 19 $181 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 16? Mar 17 $184 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 12? Mar 14 $184 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 9? Mar 11 $182 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? Mar 08 $181 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 1? Mar 07 $181 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 27? Mar 01 $185 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on February 26? Feb 27 $186 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 24? Feb 25 $186 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 22? Feb 23 $180 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 20? Feb 21 $182 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on February 17? Feb 19 $183 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 15? Feb 15 $179 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 1 Feb 14 $183 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 11? Feb 12 $181 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on February 9 Feb 10 $185 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on February 7 Feb 08 $184 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on February 3 Feb 05 $186 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $190 in January? Feb 01 $3 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 31? Feb 01 $177 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 30? Jan 31 $182 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 28? Jan 29 $173 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $102 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $105 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $100 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $101 12d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $6 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $174 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $177 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $177 34d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 5? BUY No 100¢ $175 44d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 96¢ $5 45d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $62 in May? BUY No 87¢ $6 45d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 96¢ $7 45d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 29? BUY No 100¢ $171 50d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on April 28? BUY No 100¢ $174 51d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 22? BUY No 100¢ $176 57d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 20? BUY No 100¢ $172 59d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $2 60d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $3 60d
Will Netflix reach $455 in April? BUY No 100¢ $5 60d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $181 65d
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Contr BUY No 96¢ $4 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on April 12? BUY No 100¢ $181 67d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $189 74d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 1? BUY No 100¢ $169 78d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 30? BUY No 100¢ $174 80d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 27? BUY No 100¢ $170 83d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 25? BUY No 99¢ $176 86d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 22? BUY No 100¢ $178 88d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 20? BUY No 100¢ $167 90d
Will XRP reach $2.60 in March? BUY No 100¢ $6 91d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.58 · official $115.58 (match) · 300 history records