Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:01:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce7c…75c8 sports 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$395 (-17%) realized −$408 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate43%15W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$468now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$43
7 days−$425
14 days−$425
30 days−$425
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$356
other 32% −$52
world 0% −$1
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -20.1% -27.7% 36% 32% -30.5%
≤30d 28 -20.1% -27.7% 36% 32% -30.5%
≤90d 30 -16.6% -24.5% 40% 37% -30.2%
all 35 -14.5% -22.6% 43% 37% -30.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.6% 37% -30.1%
10% -30.0% 29% -36.8%
15% -36.8% 29% -42.9%
20% -43.0% 26% -48.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$43 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$468
Realized−$408
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses15 / 20
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions12
Markets (closed)35 / 47
History coverage112d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 86¢ 92¢ $120 $127 +$7 (+6%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Under 50¢ 50¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 39¢ 44¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+12%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 70¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+5%)
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 48¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
France to score first vs. Iraq? Yes 88¢ 86¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Yes 53¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 71¢ 64¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 22 $20 $0 -2%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $10 $0 -4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$12 +12%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$4 -76%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $10 −$1 -8%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $152 +$27 +18%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $101 +$63 +62%
Ecuador to score first vs. Curaçao? Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $150 +$11 +7%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $101 −$7 -7%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $31 −$24 -78%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $102 +$111 +109%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $102 +$98 +97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$14 +134%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$11 +105%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$14 +140%
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -42%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 20 $1 $0 +43%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $10 +$2 +22%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-03-07? Mar 10 $1 +$1 +64%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-07? Mar 07 $1 +$1 +117%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Mar 06 $10 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 05 $1 −$1 -91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $51 2h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 76¢ $20 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 56¢ $10 2h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 53¢ $10 5h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $10 5h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $10 5h
France to score first vs. Iraq? BUY Yes 88¢ $20 5h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 76¢ $20 5h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 16h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 16h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 16h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 39¢ $51 19h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $51 22h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 25¢ $9 22h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 26¢ $10 22h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $51 22h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 26h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 26h
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 27h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 35h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $20 35h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $20 35h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 66¢ $104 35h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $10 42h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 45h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $101 47h
Ecuador to score first vs. Curaçao? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 2d
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $468.09 · official $468.09 (match) · 79 history records