Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:56:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
CE 0xce7d…c177 crypto 115 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-0%) realized −$26 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate89%102W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$176
14 days−$127
30 days−$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$93
other 4% −$66
sports 2% −$57
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -6.0% -15.0% 75% 31% -21.7%
≤30d 40 -2.9% -12.2% 82% 22% -11.6%
≤90d 94 -1.7% -11.1% 87% 15% -10.6%
all 114 -0.4% -9.9% 89% 16% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 16% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 4% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 2% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$53 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses102 / 12
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)114 / 115
History coverage101d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Yes 91¢ 100¢ $48 $53 +$5 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $47 +$2 +3%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? Jun 18 $40 +$6 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $39 +$2 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $122 −$92 -75%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $237 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $16 +$4 +25%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 14 $101 +$9 +9%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $108 +$8 +7%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $49 +$4 +7%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 +$6 +11%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $132 −$130 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $148 +$2 +1%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $39 −$39 -99%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $50 +$20 +40%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $47 +$32 +67%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? Jun 12 $83 −$10 -12%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $41 −$12 -28%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $258 +$10 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $245 +$13 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $236 +$8 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $217 +$18 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $205 +$13 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $199 +$7 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $177 +$22 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $161 +$11 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $95 +$4 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $120 +$5 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $76 +$24 +31%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $116 +$4 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? May 29 $90 +$10 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 27? May 28 $96 +$4 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 26? May 26 $199 −$87 -44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 25? May 25 $92 +$9 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 24? May 25 $152 +$18 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 23? May 24 $117 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 22? May 23 $116 +$4 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 21? May 22 $38 +$2 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21? May 22 $117 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 20? May 21 $94 +$6 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 19? May 20 $88 +$12 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 18? May 19 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 16? May 18 $104 +$6 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 15? May 16 $92 +$8 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? May 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 11? May 12 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 8? May 11 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 7? May 08 $88 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 4? May 05 $91 +$9 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 1? May 01 $82 −$69 -84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 91¢ $48 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $47 31h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? SELL No 100¢ $46 35h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? BUY No 87¢ $40 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 96¢ $39 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? SELL No 18¢ $22 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? SELL No 25¢ $9 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY No 73¢ $122 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $131 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $129 5d
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? BUY Yes 80¢ $16 5d
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 3 Türkiye? SELL No 99¢ $110 5d
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 3 Türkiye? BUY No 91¢ $51 5d
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 3 Türkiye? BUY No 91¢ $20 5d
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 3 Türkiye? BUY No 91¢ $30 5d
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 0 Türkiye? SELL No 99¢ $116 5d
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 0 Türkiye? BUY No 92¢ $108 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? SELL No 98¢ $108 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $105 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $0 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $1 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $1 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $1 5d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL No 94¢ $53 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 92¢ $56 5d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY No 87¢ $49 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $150 5d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $39 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.71 · official $52.74 (match) · 352 history records