Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:38:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce80…08ed sports 132 markets active 1h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$25,611 (-12%) realized −$24,758 · open −$853
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate48%62W / 68L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,587per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$3,023est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$940now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$14,082
14 days−$9,431
30 days−$8,519
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$27,659
world 1% +$59
other 1% −$348
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -1.7% -11.1% 55% 55% -21.1%
≤30d 58 -4.0% -13.1% 53% 52% -15.4%
≤90d 130 -9.4% -18.0% 48% 45% -21.6%
all 130 -9.4% -18.0% 48% 45% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 45% -21.6%
10% -25.9% 45% -29.1%
15% -33.0% 45% -35.9%
20% -39.6% 41% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$1,749) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,219 vs −$1,510 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$940
Realized−$24,758
Unrealized−$853
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses62 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$3,023
Open positions2
Markets (closed)130 / 132
History coverage75d
Avg bet$1,587
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BetBoom Team 44¢ 20¢ $1,493 $695 −$797 (-53%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $300 $244 −$56 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $15,086 −$14,929 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $5,078 −$4,900 -96%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $6,688 −$6,600 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,503 −$1,319 -88%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $2,367 +$1,719 +73%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $11,978 +$13,938 +116%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $4,960 −$4,878 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5,074 −$5,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $714 −$700 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,999 +$1,259 +63%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $991 +$539 +54%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3,529 −$3,485 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,494 +$697 +47%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $992 +$669 +67%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $760 +$566 +74%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $3,294 +$1,856 +56%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $505 −$500 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $797 +$481 +60%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $995 +$804 +81%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $2,024 +$1,277 +63%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $809 −$800 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $508 −$175 -34%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $1,014 −$1,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $510 +$1,082 +212%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $1,662 +$769 +46%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $916 +$1,205 +132%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,013 +$962 +95%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,570 −$1,551 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $9,978 +$6,858 +69%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $2,991 −$2,946 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,723 +$1,329 +77%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $4,057 −$4,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2,007 +$1,278 +64%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2,026 −$2,000 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $607 +$393 +65%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1,019 −$1,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2,545 +$1,326 +52%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1,443 +$845 +58%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1,800 +$1,023 +57%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $255 −$250 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1,705 +$1,087 +64%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $998 −$331 -33%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $1,175 +$500 +43%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $508 +$513 +101%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $506 +$363 +72%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $508 −$194 -38%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $205 −$200 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 09 $584 −$575 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $9,947 +$7,104 +71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $1,518 41m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $15,086 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL FUT Esports 2¢ $178 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 48¢ $5,078 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $4,155 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 9¢ $184 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 69¢ $1,503 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 56¢ $2,533 3d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Golden Knights 47¢ $331 3d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 53¢ $2,018 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $25,915 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $11,978 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 44¢ $4,960 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 48¢ $2,031 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 53¢ $3,043 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 31¢ $714 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL MOUZ 99¢ $3,258 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 60¢ $1,999 4d
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) SELL Monte 100¢ $1,530 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 58¢ $2,015 4d
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) BUY Monte 64¢ $991 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 58¢ $1,514 4d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 48¢ $349 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 99¢ $2,190 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 99¢ $1,661 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 58¢ $992 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 67¢ $1,494 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 99¢ $1,325 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL FURIA 99¢ $5,149 4d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY Spirit 66¢ $505 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $939.58 · official $905.65 · 264 history records