Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:58:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CE
0xce80…3b7d
crypto · 15 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$664 +20%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$127 · open −$192
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$12
Realized−$127
Unrealized−$192
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$219
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 2 History 13 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$127
7 days−$127
14 days−$127
30 days−$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $194 $2 −$192 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $68 $0 −$68 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $72 −$68 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $154 +$120 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $293 −$293 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $271 −$271 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $203 −$203 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $546 −$546 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $339 +$362 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $178 +$160 +90%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $181 −$15 -8%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $244 −$28 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $133 +$46 +35%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $116 +$504 +436%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $343 +$106 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 78% −$901
other 21% +$582
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $202 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $72 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $154 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $76 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $6 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $96 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $285 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $84 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $339 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $178 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $26 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $178 59m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $165 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $216 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $271 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $293 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $133 2h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $181 2h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $244 2h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 2h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $620 3h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $116 6h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $449 6h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 75¢ $343 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +19.7% +8.3% 46% 46% -13.3%
≤30d 13 +19.7% +8.3% 46% 46% -13.3%
≤90d 13 +19.7% +8.3% 46% 46% -13.3%
all 13 +19.7% +8.3% 46% 46% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.3% 46% -13.3%
10% ← realistic here -2.0% 46% -21.6%
15% -11.5% 31% -29.1%
20% -20.2% 31% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.02 · official $36.32 · 32 history records