Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:01:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CE 0xce83…5b97 other 212 markets active 0h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$18,796 (+13%) realized +$15,404 · open +$3,392
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate79%144W / 38L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$672per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$28,139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$63
7 days+$2,180
14 days+$2,099
30 days+$4,469
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% +$6,213
crypto 29% +$4,577
other 21% +$3,450
finance 14% +$3,212
tech 2% +$631
politics 1% −$209
sports 1% +$224
weather 0% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)-0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +11.9% +1.2% 74% 70% +8.4%
≤30d 59 +4.0% -5.9% 69% 64% +0.8%
≤90d 178 +10.9% +0.3% 80% 72% +2.2%
all 182 +9.8% -0.7% 79% 71% +1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.7% 71% +1.8%
10% -10.2% 41% -7.9%
15% -18.9% 18% -16.8%
20% -26.8% 10% -25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$600) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +20% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$147 vs −$169 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.29 per $1 lost it wins $3.29
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$28,139
Realized+$15,404
Unrealized+$3,392
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses144 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions30
Markets (closed)182 / 212
History coverage99d
Avg bet$672
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 89¢ 97¢ $10,030 $10,950 +$920 (+9%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 88¢ 98¢ $2,945 $3,264 +$319 (+11%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 71¢ 76¢ $1,800 $1,931 +$131 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 81¢ 98¢ $1,205 $1,460 +$255 (+21%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $88 in June? No 81¢ 94¢ $1,000 $1,156 +$156 (+16%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 84¢ 99¢ $781 $919 +$138 (+18%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? No 82¢ 99¢ $656 $796 +$139 (+21%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 63¢ 98¢ $500 $779 +$279 (+56%)
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? No 76¢ 99¢ $600 $776 +$176 (+29%)
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 80¢ 95¢ $600 $712 +$112 (+19%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $92 in June? No 84¢ 99¢ $420 $493 +$73 (+17%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 79¢ 94¢ $400 $475 +$75 (+19%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? No 83¢ 94¢ $416 $469 +$52 (+13%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 93¢ 100¢ $433 $465 +$32 (+7%)
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 72¢ 96¢ $300 $398 +$98 (+33%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? No 74¢ 97¢ $300 $393 +$93 (+31%)
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30? No 84¢ 91¢ $339 $366 +$27 (+8%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? No 57¢ 96¢ $200 $341 +$141 (+71%)
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? No 60¢ 95¢ $199 $315 +$115 (+58%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 82¢ 99¢ $241 $290 +$49 (+20%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 76¢ 97¢ $200 $256 +$56 (+28%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 76¢ $170 $233 +$62 (+37%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 67¢ 74¢ $200 $223 +$22 (+11%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 81¢ 89¢ $200 $220 +$20 (+10%)
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 83¢ 92¢ $160 $178 +$18 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $101 +$24 +24%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $100 +$4 +4%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $102 +$13 +13%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $102 −$101 -99%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 23 $171 +$34 +20%
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $202 +$75 +37%
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 21 $202 −$92 -46%
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 21 $201 −$45 -22%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 20 $2,723 +$525 +19%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $124 +$181 +146%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $200 +$25 +12%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $200 −$88 -44%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $164 +$140 +86%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 18 $3,983 +$1,042 +26%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 18 $836 +$270 +32%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 18 $203 +$120 +59%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 18 $304 +$134 +44%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 18 $300 +$84 +28%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $101 +$19 +19%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $201 −$45 -22%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $201 +$47 +23%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $600 +$101 +17%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $201 −$101 -50%
Will The MongolZ qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 15 $30 +$27 +90%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $300 +$37 +12%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 12 $201 −$200 -99%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $200 +$33 +17%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $200 +$21 +11%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $304 −$260 -86%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? Jun 08 $800 +$191 +24%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $504 −$174 -34%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $109 −$107 -98%
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $69 −$68 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $43 −$42 -98%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by May 31? Jun 02 $60 +$21 +34%
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 02 $203 +$136 +67%
Kash Patel out by May 31? Jun 02 $402 +$68 +17%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? Jun 02 $502 +$56 +11%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 02 $550 +$90 +16%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 02 $1,300 −$19 -2%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31? Jun 02 $720 +$165 +23%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $1,900 +$281 +15%
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in May? Jun 02 $6,312 +$821 +13%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $41 +$72 +176%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $102 −$61 -60%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in May? May 30 $301 +$28 +9%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May? May 28 $201 −$109 -54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 84¢ $100 16m
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $125 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $104 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 80¢ $101 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 96¢ $100 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $115 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $114 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 5h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $1 7h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $102 26h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 81¢ $202 26h
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $277 35h
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 33¢ $110 2d
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 63¢ $156 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 83¢ $171 3d
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 59¢ $202 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $368 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $3,800 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 47¢ $112 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $16 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $2 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $4 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $17 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $16 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $2,230 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $46 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $455 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $200 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28,139.45 · official $28,139.70 (match) · 811 history records