Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:26:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce84…73fa crypto 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$12 (-22%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate39%26W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day29.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% −$15
sports 24% +$4
other 8% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-42.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -36.3% -42.4% 39% 30% -37.9%
≤30d 66 -36.3% -42.4% 39% 30% -37.9%
≤90d 66 -36.3% -42.4% 39% 30% -37.9%
all 66 -36.3% -42.4% 39% 30% -37.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.4% 30% -37.9%
10% ← realistic here -47.9% 24% -43.9%
15% -52.9% 20% -49.3%
20% -57.6% 11% -54.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses26 / 40
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)66 / 67
History coverage3d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day29.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1 $0 -50%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 +$2 +156%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $0 $0 -50%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $0 $0 +80%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +275%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 +$2 +158%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Jun 13 $0 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +37%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $0 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -3%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -50%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $1 $0 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 72¢ $0 1h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 2h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Sweden 99¢ $3 15h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 38¢ $1 16h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 35¢ $1 27h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $1 28h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 28h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 64¢ $0 29h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 81¢ $0 36h
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 32¢ $1 37h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 38h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 43h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $1 2d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) SELL TheMongolz 50¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.94 · official $0.94 (match) · 142 history records