Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:39:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce85…2fae other 118 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$48 (-0%) realized −$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%14W / 103L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$19
14 days−$34
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 30% −$27
other 25% −$13
sports 23% −$10
crypto 9% −$10
culture 5% −$4
economics 3% −$2
world 3% −$1
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -1.0% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 67 -0.9% -10.4% 6% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 105 -0.7% -10.1% 10% 0% -9.9%
all 117 -0.6% -10.1% 12% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses14 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)117 / 118
History coverage100d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? No 98¢ 97¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $100 $0 -0%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $65 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $101 −$1 -1%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $150 −$1 -0%
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $57 $0 -1%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $101 −$2 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 15 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $119 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $161 −$1 -1%
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $23 $0 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 14 $54 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 13 $49 −$1 -3%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $58 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $37 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $109 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $363 −$4 -1%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $59 −$2 -3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 11 $53 $0 -0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 11 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $272 −$1 -0%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 10 $62 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Gretchen Whitmer be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee Jun 09 $62 −$8 -12%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 09 $45 $0 -0%
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $59 −$1 -2%
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 06 $49 −$1 -1%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $174 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $40 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 05 $18 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 05 $147 −$2 -2%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $12 $0 -2%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $56 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 04 $104 $0 -0%
Will Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Jun 03 $42 −$1 -1%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $49 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $319 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $38 −$1 -2%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $202 −$2 -1%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 02 $54 $0 -1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $58 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $90 −$1 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $58 $0 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 01 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $354 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $405 −$3 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $399 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $53 $0 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $107 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $35 1h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $49 1h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $49 8h
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 95¢ $49 8h
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $49 13h
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $65 14h
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $65 19h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $56 20h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $57 28h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $44 28h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $45 32h
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 92¢ $51 33h
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 92¢ $51 38h
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $56 39h
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $57 47h
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 94¢ $45 47h
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $46 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $56 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $57 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $59 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $12 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $48 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $23 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $24 3d
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $23 3d
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $23 3d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $54 3d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $54 3d
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 92¢ $54 3d
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 94¢ $37 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.57 · official $34.57 (match) · 489 history records