Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T07:36:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce88…570a other 136 markets active 2h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,078 (-2%) realized −$2,078 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate28%38W / 96L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$872per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$851now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$5
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$25
politics 34% −$45
sports 17% −$2,025
world 4% −$4
culture 3% −$4
crypto 2% +$2
tech 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
finance 0% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 58 -1.8% -11.2% 3% 0% -10.7%
all 134 +0.6% -9.0% 28% 10% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 10% -11.1%
10% -17.7% 10% -19.6%
15% -25.6% 9% -27.4%
20% -32.9% 7% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,296) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +10% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$26 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$851
Realized−$2,078
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses38 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)134 / 136
History coverage155d
Avg bet$872
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $563 $563 −$0 (-0%)
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $288 $288 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 21 $203 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $229 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $1,348 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $1,149 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $285 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $819 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $815 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $981 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,769 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,984 −$3 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $1,461 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $1,709 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $927 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $1,816 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $710 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1,934 −$2 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $890 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $1,557 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $410 +$1 +0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $609 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $1,042 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $3,078 −$3 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $819 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 24 $703 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $1,596 −$2 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $658 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 23 $1,033 −$2 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? May 19 $540 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,885 −$3 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $1,983 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,036 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $1,001 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 01 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? May 01 $518 +$1 +0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $1,531 −$2 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 29 $321 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $425 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $980 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $1,028 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $1,030 −$2 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $4,313 −$4 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $948 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $2,212 −$2 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $944 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,018 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $933 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $942 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $2,307 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $2,687 −$3 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $1,344 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $288 1h
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $203 5d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $203 5d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $229 6d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $229 6d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $215 7d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $215 7d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $238 8d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $238 9d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $285 9d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $285 9d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $563 10d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $818 12d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $819 13d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $814 14d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $815 14d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $979 14d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $981 14d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $822 14d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $824 15d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $994 15d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $996 15d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $881 16d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $882 16d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $955 19d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $956 20d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $926 20d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $927 20d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $836 21d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $837 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $850.80 · official $850.80 (match) · 418 history records