Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:16:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce8a…6d7c sports 1370 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 89d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$145 (-5%) realized −$146 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate55%748W / 619L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day31.8pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$16
14 days−$15
30 days−$104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$123
crypto 31% −$41
other 12% +$3
weather 1% −$6
politics 0% −$4
world 0% $0
culture 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -27.8% -34.7% 33% 32% -26.6%
≤30d 285 -17.0% -24.9% 44% 40% -24.0%
≤90d 1367 -7.2% -16.0% 55% 47% -15.4%
all 1367 -7.2% -16.0% 55% 47% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.0% 47% -15.4%
10% ← realistic here -24.0% 35% -23.5%
15% -31.4% 25% -30.9%
20% -38.1% 19% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$146
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses748 / 619
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1367 / 1370
History coverage89d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day31.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1367 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 18¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+164%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: Team to Take First Corner AND Will South Afr Jun 18 $2 +$1 +56%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners AND Will Colombia win Jun 18 $2 +$1 +52%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 $0 +24%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 +37%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $2 $0 -14%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
ITF Maanshan: Yecong Mo vs Joshua Charlton Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
ITF Haskovo: Anja Stankovic vs Rositsa Dencheva Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 17 $1 $0 -8%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +78%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -27%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $2 $0 +23%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -1%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $1 +$1 +112%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $2 $0 -6%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -74%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2 $0 -5%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $2 +$7 +339%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +112%
ITF Varnamo: Niels Mcdonald vs Sandro Kopp Jun 14 $1 +$1 +48%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -26%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -76%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? AND Will Switzerlan BUY 65¢ $2 31m
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $1 13h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Team to Take First Corner AND Will South Afr BUY 63¢ $2 14h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners AND Will Colombia win BUY 65¢ $2 18h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 88¢ $2 18h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 70¢ $2 19h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 20h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 21h
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes $1 22h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 24h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 25h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $1 25h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 25h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 39¢ $1 25h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 26h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Corentin Moutet 40¢ $1 26h
ITF Haskovo: Anja Stankovic vs Rositsa Dencheva BUY Rositsa Dencheva 27¢ $1 33h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Corentin Moutet 42¢ $1 35h
ITF Haskovo: Anja Stankovic vs Rositsa Dencheva BUY Rositsa Dencheva 85¢ $1 35h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 46h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 45¢ $0 46h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 79¢ $1 46h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 33¢ $1 46h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 46h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 40¢ $1 47h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 47h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Alex de Minaur 81¢ $2 2d
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Corentin Moutet 82¢ $1 2d
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 60¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.45 · official $5.45 · 3500 history records