Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:55:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce8b…738a sports 305 markets active 0h ago coverage 200d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$172 (-2%) realized −$161 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate45%137W / 166L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$73est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days−$171
14 days−$206
30 days−$274
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$294
other 14% −$169
world 5% −$23
tech 3% −$3
crypto 2% +$1
weather 1% −$11
finance 1% $0
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 -23.1% -30.4% 43% 41% -16.4%
≤30d 211 -16.5% -24.5% 47% 43% -13.9%
≤90d 278 -21.6% -29.1% 41% 35% -16.5%
all 303 -17.4% -25.3% 45% 39% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.3% 39% -15.3%
10% -32.4% 29% -23.4%
15% -38.9% 19% -30.8%
20% -44.9% 15% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$12 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

200d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$161
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses137 / 166
Est. fees paid−$73
Open positions2
Markets (closed)303 / 305
History coverage200d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 303 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Aryna Sabalenka 91¢ 76¢ $46 $38 −$7 (-16%)
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Francisco Cerundolo 36¢ 18¢ $7 $4 −$4 (-51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 85 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Dublin: Kyrian Jacquet vs Henry Searle Jun 19 $15 −$9 -58%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri Jun 19 $25 −$13 -52%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 19 $32 −$16 -50%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 19 $11 +$19 +178%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $45 −$5 -11%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 19 $25 +$5 +19%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $42 +$8 +19%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $28 +$22 +78%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston Jun 18 $38 +$12 +33%
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski Jun 18 $10 −$6 -61%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Valentina Ryser Jun 18 $12 −$8 -70%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $46 +$4 +9%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Hannah Klugman Jun 18 $23 +$7 +31%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $45 +$15 +32%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 18 $16 +$13 +80%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 18 $14 −$4 -32%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry Jun 18 $44 +$6 +14%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5 Jun 18 $12 +$8 +71%
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic Jun 17 $24 −$12 -50%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $12 −$10 -85%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea Jun 17 $32 −$16 -50%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $18 −$14 -77%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova Jun 17 $32 +$12 +39%
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria Jun 17 $10 −$9 -92%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $32 −$16 -50%
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 17 $32 +$8 +25%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $10 −$8 -83%
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 17 $9 +$30 +335%
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 17 $27 +$10 +36%
Parma: Jacopo Vasami vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Jun 17 $32 +$7 +22%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 17 $24 −$12 -49%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Michele Ribecai Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $12 −$6 -49%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $43 +$57 +132%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $16 +$11 +67%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson Jun 16 $24 +$6 +24%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $10 +$18 +171%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka Jun 16 $35 +$5 +14%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Jun 16 $11 −$1 -8%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 16 $12 −$9 -76%
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur Jun 16 $27 −$11 -41%
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon Jun 16 $23 +$7 +28%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $51 +$49 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 91¢ $46 15m
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 36¢ $7 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 11¢ $4 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 11¢ $1 1h
Dublin: Kyrian Jacquet vs Henry Searle SELL Henry Searle 16¢ $6 1h
Dublin: Kyrian Jacquet vs Henry Searle BUY Henry Searle 38¢ $12 1h
Dublin: Kyrian Jacquet vs Henry Searle BUY Henry Searle 38¢ $3 1h
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri SELL Max Alcala Gurri 100¢ $30 1h
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri BUY Kilian Feldbausch 43¢ $13 3h
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri BUY Max Alcala Gurri 40¢ $2 3h
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri BUY Max Alcala Gurri 40¢ $5 3h
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri BUY Max Alcala Gurri 40¢ $5 3h
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri BUY Max Alcala Gurri 40¢ $0 3h
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Jil Teichmann SELL Darja Vidmanova 100¢ $40 3h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima SELL Brandon Nakashima 100¢ $30 3h
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann 40¢ $13 4h
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann 40¢ $2 4h
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann 40¢ $2 4h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima BUY Brandon Nakashima 36¢ $11 4h
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Jil Teichmann BUY Darja Vidmanova 40¢ $16 5h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys SELL Jessica Pegula 80¢ $40 5h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Jessica Pegula 90¢ $45 5h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever SELL Atlanta Dream 100¢ $30 13h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Atlanta Dream 84¢ $25 14h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 100¢ $50 14h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 84¢ $42 15h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $50 20h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 56¢ $28 21h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 61¢ $12 22h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Elena Rybakina 13¢ $4 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.75 · official $37.75 · 965 history records