Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:47:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce8b…cff3 world 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 307d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate29%10W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% −$7
politics 14% −$2
other 7% $0
economics 5% +$1
sports 4% $0
tech 1% +$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 8 -0.8% -10.3% 38% 0% -11.4%
≤90d 9 -0.7% -10.2% 33% 0% -11.2%
all 34 -1.8% -11.2% 29% 3% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 3% -10.5%
10% -19.7% 0% -19.1%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.9%
20% -34.6% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

307d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses10 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage307d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $35 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $40 −$3 -6%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $34 +$2 +6%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $34 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $12 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $84 −$7 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $38 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $44 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 30 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 22 $2 $0 -1%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 12 $33 +$1 +4%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 21 $9 $0 +1%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 09 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 08 $2 $0 -8%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Sep 08 $2 −$1 -60%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 08 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 28 $6 $0 -0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 25 $2 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 25 $6 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 345–359 times August 22–August 29? Aug 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 25 $6 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 US Open? Aug 24 $1 $0 +6%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 330–344 times August 22–August 29? Aug 24 $9 $0 -1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 24 $8 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Aug 23 $12 −$1 -7%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 22 $37 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $38 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $35 9h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $35 11h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $34 19h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $34 23h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 45¢ $3 25h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 45¢ $35 25h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $40 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 35h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 36h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $28 39h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $9 39h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $27 43h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $7 43h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $2 45h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $33 45h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $35 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $31 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $3 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $34 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $12 22d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $11 22d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $21 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $13 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $34 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $6 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $28 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $38 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $1 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.74 · official $37.74 (match) · 120 history records