Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:38:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce8c…66e0 sports 244 markets active 2h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-0%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%19W / 225L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 29% −$4
politics 26% −$3
other 19% −$7
crypto 8% −$8
economics 6% −$1
world 6% −$1
culture 4% −$1
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 3 -0.4% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 4 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -9.9%
all 244 -0.2% -9.7% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses19 / 225
Open positions0
Markets (closed)244 / 244
History coverage171d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 244 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $73 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $27 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $82 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 15 $27 $0 -1%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 27 $38 $0 +0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Feb 27 $84 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 27 $74 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 14, 2026 (ET)? Feb 27 $80 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 26 $215 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 3, 2026 (ET)? Feb 26 $36 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 26 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 26 $53 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 26 $165 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 26 $99 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Feb 26 $70 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 26 $88 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 26 $70 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 13, 2026 (ET)? Feb 26 $29 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 26 $35 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 25 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 25 $107 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 25 $31 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 25 $101 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 25 $31 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 25 $334 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 25 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 23 $124 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 23 $162 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 23 $80 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 23 $31 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 23 $71 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 23 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 23 $109 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 23 $35 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 23 $112 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 23 $174 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 23 $73 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 23 $107 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 23 $162 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 7, 2026 (ET)? Feb 23 $39 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 21 $117 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 21 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 21 $112 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 21 $69 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 21 $91 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 21 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 21 $37 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 21 $130 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 21 $91 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 18 $171 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $32 1h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $33 7h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $27 12d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $27 12d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $24 24d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $24 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $27 35d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $27 36d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $35 112d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $35 112d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $28 112d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $28 112d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 98¢ $34 112d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 98¢ $34 112d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $25 112d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $25 112d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 14, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 98¢ $24 112d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 14, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 98¢ $24 112d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $37 113d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $37 113d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 3, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 98¢ $36 113d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 3, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 98¢ $36 113d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $24 113d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $24 113d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 96¢ $27 113d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 96¢ $27 113d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 95¢ $34 113d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 96¢ $34 113d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $27 113d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $27 113d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 989 history records