Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:27:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce8c…305c crypto 205 markets active 6d ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$302 (+2%) realized +$302 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate88%181W / 24L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day28.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$36
14 days+$305
30 days+$316
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$316
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -5.2% -14.2% 80% 41% -7.5%
≤30d 205 -0.5% -9.9% 88% 23% -6.7%
≤90d 205 -0.5% -9.9% 88% 23% -6.7%
all 205 -0.5% -9.9% 88% 23% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 23% -6.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 10% -15.6%
15% -26.4% 5% -23.7%
20% -33.6% 3% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$56 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$302
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses181 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)205 / 205
History coverage16d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 205 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 11 $206 −$80 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $103 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $51 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $923 −$400 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $409 −$342 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 11 $402 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $403 +$29 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $405 +$54 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 11 $405 +$61 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 11 $408 +$120 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $406 +$75 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 11 $807 +$39 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $823 +$32 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $402 +$15 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 11 $407 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 11 $459 +$152 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $204 +$51 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 11 $202 +$20 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $204 +$52 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $407 +$96 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $404 −$174 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $203 +$38 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 11 $202 +$18 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 11 $204 +$46 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $411 +$40 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 11 $16 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $405 +$10 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $31 −$10 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 11 $47 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$8 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $205 −$98 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 10 $101 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 10 $151 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $102 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 10 $101 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 10 $102 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 10 $102 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 10 $101 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 10 $102 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 10 $101 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 10 $51 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 10 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $51 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 10 $101 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 10 $101 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $101 +$4 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $111 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $62 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $51 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $55 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $51 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $51 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $403 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $177 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $520 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $56 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $408 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $401 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $402 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $404 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $404 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $407 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $405 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 643 history records