Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:09:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce8e…6c34 weather 226 markets active 2h ago coverage 543d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$31 (-1%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate49%110W / 114L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 33% −$12
politics 21% −$1
other 14% −$5
crypto 11% $0
tech 7% +$1
economics 6% −$3
culture 4% −$3
sports 3% −$9
finance 1% $0
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.0% -9.5% 34% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 85 +0.0% -9.5% 44% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 172 -2.3% -11.6% 44% 0% -10.2%
all 224 -3.5% -12.7% 49% 1% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 1% -10.1%
10% -21.0% 1% -18.7%
15% -28.7% 1% -26.5%
20% -35.6% 1% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

543d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses110 / 114
Open positions2
Markets (closed)224 / 226
History coverage543d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 224 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 104°F or higher on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 8°C on June 28? Jun 28 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on June 28? Jun 28 $16 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 85°F or below on June 28? Jun 28 $25 $0 -0%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28? Jun 27 $17 $0 -0%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 27 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $22 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 28? Jun 27 $24 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 104-105°F on June 27 Jun 27 $21 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C or higher on June 27? Jun 27 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C or below on June 26? Jun 26 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 26 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 26 $29 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 106°F or higher on June 26? Jun 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C on June 27? Jun 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 26? Jun 26 $24 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on June 26 Jun 26 $8 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C or below on June 26? Jun 26 $9 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 26? Jun 25 $7 $0 -0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 26? Jun 25 $21 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 25? Jun 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 25? Jun 25 $29 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 25? Jun 25 $10 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $54 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 10°C or below on June 25? Jun 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 24? Jun 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 24? Jun 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will LaBaron Philon be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 24 $25 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 18? Jun 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 19? Jun 22 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 9? Jun 08 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 54-55°F on Ju Jun 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on June 3? Jun 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 3? Jun 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 3? Jun 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 3? Jun 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 3? Jun 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Julie Stauch win the 2026 Iowa Governor Democratic primary electi Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea win 0 or 1 seats in South Korea’s J Jun 02 $11 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $1.40 on June 2? Jun 02 $23 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C or higher on June Jun 02 $8 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 3? Jun 02 $16 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 2? Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 2? Jun 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 2? Jun 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $24 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 104°F or higher on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $26 3h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 8°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $18 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $16 9h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 8°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $18 10h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 85°F or below on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $25 10h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $25 13h
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28? SELL No 100¢ $5 14h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 100¢ $23 15h
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28? SELL No 100¢ $12 16h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 85°F or below on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $25 16h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 100¢ $23 18h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $16 21h
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28? BUY No 100¢ $17 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $22 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $24 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $22 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $24 27h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 104-105°F on June 27 SELL No 100¢ $1 30h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C or higher on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $0 31h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C or higher on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $10 31h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C or higher on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $2 31h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 104-105°F on June 27 SELL No 100¢ $20 31h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 104-105°F on June 27 BUY No 100¢ $21 31h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C or higher on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $12 35h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $9 39h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $0 39h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 40h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 106°F or higher on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $10 41h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $19 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.84 · official $75.84 (match) · 517 history records