Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:22:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce8e…1a4b other 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 305d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-1%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate46%26W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% +$1
politics 29% +$1
other 24% −$13
crypto 7% $0
sports 3% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.2% -8.4% 57% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 13 +1.9% -7.8% 62% 8% -9.3%
≤90d 13 +1.9% -7.8% 62% 8% -9.3%
all 57 -1.6% -11.0% 46% 4% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 4% -10.8%
10% -19.5% 0% -19.3%
15% -27.3% 0% -27.1%
20% -34.4% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

305d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses26 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)57 / 57
History coverage305d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 57 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $30 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $6 $0 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $32 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $1 $0 +7%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $33 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $11 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 04 $32 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $29 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $1 $0 +16%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $37 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jan 30 $2 $0 -6%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jan 30 $14 +$1 +5%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 19 $11 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $8 $0 +1%
Will Elche CF win on 2025-11-23? Nov 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 25 $31 −$13 -42%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 21 $27 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Nov 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Nov 14 $8 +$1 +14%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31? Oct 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Oct 06 $9 $0 +1%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 30 $1 $0 +2%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $8 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $9 $0 +2%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 12 $35 −$1 -2%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? Sep 11 $1 $0 +3%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 11 $18 $0 +2%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 27 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in August? Aug 27 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 26 $4 $0 -6%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Aug 26 $22 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 26 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 US Open? Aug 25 $25 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell in August? Aug 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 23 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $30 44m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $30 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $6 3h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $6 5h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $32 15h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $32 17h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 33h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 33h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 39h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $34 47h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $33 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $11 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $11 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $3 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 3d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 80¢ $32 16d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 81¢ $5 18d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 81¢ $28 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $28 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $1 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $29 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes $1 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes $1 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $36 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 22d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $36 22d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $35 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 208 history records