trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | no closed markets | |||||
| all | 66 | -18.5% | -26.2% | 38% | 35% | -20.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -26.2% | 35% | -20.1% |
| 10% | -33.3% | 33% | -27.7% |
| 15% | -39.7% | 29% | -34.7% |
| 20% | -45.6% | 27% | -41.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 20¢ | 20¢ | $1,686 | $1,733 | +$47 (+3%) |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 7¢ | 7¢ | $359 | $356 | −$3 (-1%) |
| Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 3¢ | $290 | $307 | +$17 (+6%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Feb 28 | $289 | −$203 | -70% |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | Feb 28 | $400 | +$890 | +223% |
| Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $16 mi | Feb 16 | $250 | −$250 | -100% |
| Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $15 mi | Feb 16 | $250 | −$250 | -100% |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | Feb 09 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| James Madison vs. Oregon | Dec 20 | $28 | −$28 | -100% |
| Bears vs. Packers | Dec 07 | $75 | −$75 | -100% |
| Ohio State vs. Indiana | Dec 07 | $75 | +$127 | +170% |
| BYU vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders | Dec 06 | $142 | −$142 | -100% |
| Alabama vs. Auburn | Nov 30 | $135 | +$63 | +47% |
| Vanderbilt vs. Tennessee | Nov 30 | $83 | +$106 | +127% |
| Houston vs. Baylor | Nov 29 | $124 | +$101 | +82% |
| Clemson vs. South Carolina | Nov 29 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| UCF vs. BYU | Nov 29 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| BYU vs. Cincinnati | Nov 29 | $75 | +$54 | +72% |
| Arizona State vs. Colorado | Nov 23 | $90 | −$90 | -100% |
| Tennessee vs. Florida Gators | Nov 23 | $29 | −$29 | -100% |
| Arkansas vs. Texas | Nov 23 | $250 | +$79 | +31% |
| TCU vs. Houston | Nov 22 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| USC vs. Oregon | Nov 22 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| TCU vs. BYU | Nov 16 | $23 | −$23 | -100% |
| Florida Gators vs. Ole Miss | Nov 16 | $85 | −$61 | -72% |
| Mississippi State vs. Missouri | Nov 16 | $85 | −$65 | -77% |
| Utah vs. Baylor | Nov 16 | $100 | −$78 | -78% |
| Oklahoma vs. Alabama | Nov 16 | $5 | +$3 | +54% |
| Purdue Boilermakers vs. Washington | Nov 16 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Georgia Tech vs. Boston College | Nov 15 | $320 | $0 | +0% |
| Iowa vs. USC | Nov 15 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? | Nov 15 | $79 | +$141 | +178% |
| LSU vs. Alabama | Nov 09 | $173 | +$46 | +26% |
| California vs. Louisville | Nov 09 | $65 | +$223 | +343% |
| Wake Forest vs. Virginia | Nov 09 | $107 | −$107 | -100% |
| Navy vs. Notre Dame | Nov 09 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| Auburn vs. Vanderbilt | Nov 09 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| Washington vs. Wisconsin Badgers | Nov 09 | $272 | −$92 | -34% |
| Iowa State vs. TCU | Nov 09 | $40 | +$103 | +257% |
| Oregon vs. Iowa | Nov 09 | $100 | +$51 | +51% |
| Indiana vs. Penn State | Nov 08 | $50 | +$129 | +257% |
| Colorado vs. West Virginia | Nov 08 | $200 | −$187 | -93% |
| BYU vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders | Nov 08 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Georgia Tech vs. NC State | Nov 02 | $900 | −$900 | -100% |
| Arizona vs. Colorado | Nov 02 | $204 | −$204 | -100% |
| Mississippi State vs. Arkansas | Nov 01 | $377 | +$605 | +160% |
| Fresno State vs. Boise State | Nov 01 | $150 | −$150 | -100% |
| Cincinnati vs. Utah | Nov 01 | $250 | −$250 | -100% |
| Georgia vs. Florida Gators | Nov 01 | $127 | −$127 | -100% |
| Texas A&M vs. LSU | Nov 01 | $150 | +$156 | +104% |
| Houston vs. Arizona State | Nov 01 | $395 | +$275 | +70% |
| Colorado vs. Utah | Oct 26 | $232 | −$231 | -99% |
| BYU vs. Iowa State | Oct 26 | $40 | +$3 | +9% |