trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +1.4% | -8.2% | 100% | 0% | -8.2% |
| ≤30d | 9 | +0.3% | -9.2% | 56% | 11% | -9.9% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +0.3% | -9.2% | 56% | 11% | -9.9% |
| all | 21 | -2.1% | -11.4% | 52% | 14% | -9.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.4% | 14% | -9.6% |
| 10% | -19.9% | 5% | -18.2% |
| 15% | -27.6% | 5% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -34.7% | 0% | -33.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 86¢ | 86¢ | $14 | $14 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 17 | $39 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma | May 27 | $39 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | May 27 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | May 26 | $26 | +$3 | +11% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | May 25 | $60 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | May 24 | $42 | −$1 | -2% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | May 23 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | May 21 | $46 | −$5 | -10% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | May 21 | $24 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Jul 04 | $1 | −$1 | -53% |
| Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? | Jun 27 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and | Jun 07 | $5 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el | Jun 05 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? | May 09 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? | Apr 26 | $6 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? | Apr 25 | $4 | +$1 | +37% |
| Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? | Apr 25 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Trump-Putin-Xi meeting before July? | Apr 25 | $5 | $0 | -3% |
| Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? | Apr 25 | $117 | $0 | -0% |
| Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30? | Apr 25 | $122 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Susie Wiles be out as White House Chief of Staff in Trump's first | Apr 24 | $2 | $0 | +18% |