Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CE 0xce98…fbb1 sports 372 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$169 (-4%) realized −$164 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate62%216W / 131L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day30.6pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$154now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days+$16
14 days+$34
30 days−$324
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$410
weather 14% +$18
world 10% +$81
other 6% −$9
crypto 3% −$4
tech 2% −$11
politics 2% +$2
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -3.0% -12.3% 59% 18% -3.8%
≤30d 337 -3.6% -12.8% 63% 23% -16.5%
≤90d 347 -3.6% -12.8% 62% 23% -16.5%
all 347 -3.6% -12.8% 62% 23% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 23% -16.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 16% -24.5%
15% -28.7% 13% -31.8%
20% -35.7% 11% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$154
Realized−$164
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses216 / 131
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions25
Markets (closed)347 / 372
History coverage33d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day30.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 347 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+2%)
GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 78¢ 92¢ $14 $17 +$3 (+19%)
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? No 87¢ 96¢ $14 $16 +$1 (+10%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 97¢ 98¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+19%)
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 95¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+6%)
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 94¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 20? No 96¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 91¢ 98¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+8%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No 95¢ 97¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? No 93¢ 92¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will a UK social media ban take effect by December 31, 2026? No 84¢ 68¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-19%)
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $440 end of June? No 59¢ 81¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+37%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? No 36¢ 28¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-24%)
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 94¢ 95¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump say "Bond" in June? Yes 97¢ 74¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-24%)
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.50 in June? Yes 30¢ 10¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-65%)
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $330 in June? Yes 21¢ 9¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-57%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 84¢ 86¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $360 in June? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $6.00 in June? Yes 12¢ 5¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-58%)
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $116 in June? Yes 15¢ 2¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-83%)
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $4.00 in June? Yes 26¢ 42¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+59%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? Yes 23¢ 16¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $33 −$12 -35%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? Jun 18 $6 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $7 $0 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 18? Jun 18 $28 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $14 $0 -3%
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? Jun 18 $1 $0 +7%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -31%
Will Warsh say "Rate" or "Cut" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $14 $0 +3%
Will Trump say "Steve" or "Witkoff" during G7 events? Jun 17 $14 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $43 +$30 +69%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $17 +$6 +33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $39 −$4 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +16%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $13 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 $0 -0%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $13 +$1 +4%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June? Jun 14 $14 −$8 -61%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $2 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +6%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $13 $0 -0%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 13 $1 $0 +35%
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 13 $3 $0 -1%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $152 in June? Jun 12 $13 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 $0 +3%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $13 +$1 +10%
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 09 $40 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $13 −$1 -4%
Exact Score: Equatorial Guinea 0 - 0 Comoros? Jun 08 $13 $0 -1%
Will Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros end in a draw? Jun 08 $16 +$1 +6%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $7 −$1 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $27 +$9 +33%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? Jun 08 $9 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $2 +$1 +64%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June? Jun 07 $14 $0 -1%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $2 $0 +18%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $2 $0 -3%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $13 +$2 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 +$2 +118%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 6? Jun 06 $13 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 6? Jun 06 $13 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump visit Wisconsin in 2026? Jun 05 $4 $0 +1%
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Makarska: Rebecca Sramkova vs Tara Wurth Jun 04 $1 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 96¢ $7 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 12h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 12h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 30¢ $18 13h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 48¢ $14 14h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 48¢ $14 14h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $360 in June? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 19h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 19h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 45¢ $0 19h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $0 20h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $0 20h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 45¢ $0 20h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $0 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 21h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 54¢ $0 21h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 54¢ $0 22h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 54¢ $0 22h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 53¢ $0 22h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 62¢ $1 30h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 61¢ $0 30h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 59¢ $0 30h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 76¢ $4 31h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? SELL No 80¢ $3 39h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? SELL No 79¢ $3 40h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? SELL Yes 96¢ $2 43h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? SELL Yes 96¢ $2 43h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $31 44h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? SELL Yes 95¢ $1 44h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? BUY No 82¢ $6 45h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? SELL Yes 95¢ $2 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $154.49 · official $154.01 (match) · 1242 history records