Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:33:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xce99…6955 crypto 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 372d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$380 (-23%) realized −$382 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate21%18W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% +$48
world 21% −$289
other 10% −$35
sports 6% −$3
politics 3% −$57
tech 1% −$10
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-60.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -56.1% -60.3% 24% 24% -10.0%
≤30d 29 -56.1% -60.3% 24% 24% -10.0%
≤90d 40 -55.4% -59.7% 25% 22% -16.5%
all 85 -56.1% -60.2% 21% 19% -29.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -60.2% 19% -29.1%
10% -64.0% 19% -35.9%
15% -67.5% 15% -42.1%
20% -70.7% 13% -47.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -56% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -54% → late -59% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$10 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

372d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$382
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses18 / 67
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)85 / 86
History coverage372d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 30¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 +$7 +139%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals Jun 14 $10 +$9 +90%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$29 +57%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 Jun 13 $15 +$26 +173%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $15 +$9 +57%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $40 +$9 +23%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $81 +$29 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Apr 11 $2 +$2 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Apr 11 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 11 $5 −$3 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 11 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Apr 11 $2 −$2 -94%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $14 −$10 -71%
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 14 $160 −$160 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 14 $10 −$10 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? Jan 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? Jan 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31? Oct 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by August 31? Aug 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Meta have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 35¢ $12 54m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $15 4h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 22h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 22h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 22h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 22h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 22h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 24h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 24h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 24h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 24h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $10 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 24h
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $10 26h
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 47¢ $10 27h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 44h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 BUY 36¢ $15 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 86¢ $50 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $40 2d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 63¢ $15 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $15 3d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.63 · official $6.63 (match) · 166 history records