Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:07:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xcea2…0f20 crypto 119 markets active 2h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$262 (+4%) realized +$269 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate24%27W / 85L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$373now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$795
14 days−$799
30 days−$799
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% −$509
other 28% −$619
world 17% +$1,138
sports 3% +$28
finance 1% $0
politics 1% −$1
weather 1% +$4
tech 1% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -36.0% -42.1% 25% 22% -29.0%
≤30d 38 -20.2% -27.8% 26% 24% -28.1%
≤90d 80 -15.3% -23.4% 22% 15% -26.6%
all 112 -17.9% -25.8% 24% 18% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.8% 18% -2.3%
10% -32.9% 16% -11.6%
15% -39.3% 13% -20.2%
20% -45.3% 11% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$21 · ×3.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$373
Realized+$269
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses27 / 85
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions6
Markets (closed)112 / 119
History coverage157d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $100 $123 +$23 (+23%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $100 $120 +$20 (+20%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $50 $63 +$13 (+26%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $100 $61 −$39 (-39%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? Yes 9¢ 2¢ $25 $5 −$20 (-79%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $51 −$24 -46%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -97%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 18 $37 −$19 -50%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $44 +$45 +103%
Senegal leading at halftime? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $36 +$11 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$19 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $185 −$175 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $62 +$30 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $700 −$390 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $619 +$38 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $191 −$10 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $436 +$80 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $129 −$125 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $134 −$15 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $63 −$8 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $36 +$21 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $131 −$22 -17%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $56 +$30 +54%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 +$55 +178%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $28 −$27 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 02 $5 +$16 +320%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 01 $12 +$10 +86%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on April 1? Apr 01 $10 −$7 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 01 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 01 $3 +$1 +38%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on April 1? Apr 01 $3 −$3 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Apr 01 $29 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 1? Apr 01 $11 −$3 -28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 1? Apr 01 $19 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 1? Apr 01 $12 $0 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 1? Apr 01 $11 −$1 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 9¢ $26 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $28 1h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 3d
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 3d
Switzerland leading at halftime? SELL Yes 13¢ $18 3d
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 25¢ $37 3d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 3d
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 3d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 10¢ $15 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $89 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $44 5d
Senegal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 5d
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $47 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $45 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $27 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $27 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $27 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $105 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $92 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $35 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 11¢ $62 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $372.78 · official $372.78 (match) · 386 history records