Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:43:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CE 0xcea5…4677 crypto 641 markets active 0h ago coverage 123d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 122d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,553 (-8%) realized −$1,543 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate53%364W / 317L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day22.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$870
7 days−$898
14 days−$898
30 days−$902
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,171
sports 0% −$17
other 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -77.9% -80.0% 16% 14% -75.0%
≤30d 80 -57.7% -61.7% 28% 25% -71.7%
≤90d 440 -20.7% -28.2% 50% 37% -22.6%
all 681 -14.1% -22.3% 53% 35% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.3% 35% -18.7%
10% ← realistic here -29.7% 22% -26.5%
15% -36.5% 14% -33.6%
20% -42.7% 10% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$18 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$1,543
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses364 / 317
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)681 / 641
History coverage123d ⚠
Avg bet$31
Trades / day22.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 681 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Down 60¢ 40¢ $30 $20 −$10 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 191 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 8AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 27 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 27 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 9AM ET Jun 27 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 27 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 27 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 27 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 27 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 27 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 27 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 27 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 27 $29 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$9 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 27 $11 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$4 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 26 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 26 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 26 $35 +$12 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $22 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $8 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $12 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $41 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $26 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $13 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $37 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $0 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.25 · official $23.75 · 3500 history records