Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:04:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
CE 0xcea6…67ad sports 744 markets active 2h ago coverage 254d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,523 (+0%) realized +$1,521 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%365W / 378L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$428per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$596est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$171
7 days−$354
14 days+$106
30 days−$2,622
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,090
other 0% +$151
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -37.5% -43.4% 27% 27% -46.7%
≤30d 42 -13.6% -21.8% 38% 38% -38.1%
≤90d 282 -22.7% -30.1% 38% 38% -55.9%
all 743 -2.4% -11.7% 49% 49% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 49% -9.0%
10% -20.2% 47% -17.7%
15% -27.9% 44% -25.7%
20% -34.9% 39% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -51% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +15% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$379 vs −$363 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

254d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$1,521
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses365 / 378
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$596
Open positions1
Markets (closed)743 / 744
History coverage254d
Avg bet$428
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 743 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Bosnia and Herzegovina 46¢ 48¢ $49 $51 +$2 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 292 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $98 −$96 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 22 $77 −$75 -98%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $51 +$74 +146%
Spread: Ecuador (-4.5) Jun 20 $41 −$40 -97%
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $99 +$61 +62%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $80 +$143 +180%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $122 −$120 -99%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $98 −$96 -98%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $70 −$68 -97%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $61 +$254 +414%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 +$68 +67%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $82 −$80 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $102 +$121 +119%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $61 +$146 +238%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $102 +$103 +101%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $115 +$199 +172%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 03 $288 −$284 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 03 $203 −$200 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 02 $203 −$200 -99%
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs GIANTX (+1.5) Jun 01 $303 +$151 +50%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 01 $353 −$350 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $793 −$790 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 31 $407 −$400 -98%
Game Handicap: TL (-2.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+2.5) May 31 $218 −$215 -99%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $303 +$151 +50%
Game Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs GIANTX (+1.5) May 31 $304 −$300 -98%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 31 $304 +$222 +73%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 30 $406 −$400 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Galions (BO5) - LFL Playoffs May 29 $205 −$200 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $407 −$400 -98%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $304 +$188 +62%
Game Handicap: NS (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5) May 28 $304 −$300 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $305 −$300 -98%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA (+1.5) May 26 $304 +$227 +75%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) May 26 $305 +$308 +101%
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Movistar KOI (+1.5) May 25 $305 +$362 +119%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 25 $253 +$201 +79%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $194 +$597 +307%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 24 $305 −$300 -98%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 24 $303 +$122 +40%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $304 +$273 +90%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qual May 21 $203 −$200 -99%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 20 $201 +$209 +104%
Spread: Thunder (-7.5) May 20 $203 −$200 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 46¢ $50 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 37¢ $98 18h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 22¢ $77 44h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 40¢ $51 3d
Spread: Ecuador (-4.5) BUY Ecuador 12¢ $41 3d
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) BUY Ecuador 24¢ $41 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $99 5d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 35¢ $80 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 54¢ $122 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $98 6d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 40¢ $100 6d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $70 6d
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 19¢ $61 7d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $101 7d
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 27¢ $102 8d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 8d
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 18¢ $82 9d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $101 9d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 45¢ $102 9d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $61 9d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 10d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $102 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $115 11d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $288 20d
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 50¢ $203 21d
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 51¢ $203 21d
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 73¢ $353 22d
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs GIANTX (+1.5) BUY Karmine Corp 66¢ $303 23d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Anyones Legend 85¢ $793 23d
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Chicago Cubs 45¢ $407 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.60 · official $50.60 (match) · 1880 history records