Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:23:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xcea8…4f98 other 66 markets active 2h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate41%27W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$0
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% +$4
other 26% −$10
politics 5% $0
sports 3% $0
culture 2% −$1
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% −$1
economics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.4% -9.9% 20% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 19 +0.1% -9.5% 21% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 19 +0.1% -9.5% 21% 0% -9.2%
all 66 -5.3% -14.3% 41% 3% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 3% -10.1%
10% -22.5% 2% -18.7%
15% -30.0% 0% -26.5%
20% -36.9% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses27 / 39
Open positions0
Markets (closed)66 / 66
History coverage465d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 66 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $46 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $51 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 17 $46 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $46 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $45 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $4 $0 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $83 +$3 +4%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $34 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $36 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $48 −$3 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $47 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $47 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $46 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $45 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $139 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $62 +$4 +7%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $43 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? Aug 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Aug 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 05 $1 $0 -12%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 04 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times June 27–July 4? Jul 03 $12 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 03 $14 $0 -0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 03 $6 $0 +1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 03 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 03 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jul 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 01 $8 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -48%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Jun 24 $6 +$1 +20%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jun 19 $9 −$4 -48%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jun 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will the candidate from the Democratic Party (DPK) win the South Korea Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Larry Ellison buy TikTok before July? Jun 05 $7 $0 +2%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 03 $1 $0 +34%
Starmer out before July? Jun 03 $5 $0 -0%
Will Vlad Voiculescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? Jun 02 $9 $0 +2%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? Jun 02 $7 $0 +3%
Will Israel qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $2 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $46 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $29 2h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $17 2h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $18 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $33 17h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $51 17h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $32 25h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $14 25h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $46 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 82¢ $3 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $4 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $4 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 80¢ $45 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 74¢ $42 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $14 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $14 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $6 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $34 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 75¢ $41 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 76¢ $45 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $34 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $7 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $41 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $3 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $3 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $12 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $13 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $5 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 61¢ $42 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 191 history records