Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:05:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
CE 0xceb1…4249 other 150 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$111 (+2%) realized +$384 · open −$273
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%60W / 66L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$852now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$103
7 days+$175
14 days+$115
30 days+$326
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% −$87
crypto 27% +$349
sports 24% +$39
world 8% −$21
finance 6% −$219
economics 3% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 +1.3% -8.4% 50% 50% -0.3%
≤30d 124 +2.4% -7.3% 48% 46% -2.9%
≤90d 126 +1.9% -7.8% 48% 46% -3.4%
all 126 +1.9% -7.8% 48% 46% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 46% -3.4%
10% -16.6% 44% -12.7%
15% -24.7% 42% -21.1%
20% -32.1% 39% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$24 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$852
Realized+$384
Unrealized−$273
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses60 / 66
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions24
Markets (closed)126 / 150
History coverage38d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $178 $162 −$16 (-9%)
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Côte dIvoire 65¢ 64¢ $65 $64 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $67 $63 −$4 (-6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $70 $63 −$7 (-10%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Ecuador 62¢ 62¢ $62 $62 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 15¢ $33 $59 +$26 (+80%)
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Over 59¢ 58¢ $59 $58 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $76 $55 −$22 (-28%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $38 $39 +$1 (+4%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $31 $28 −$4 (-11%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $13 $28 +$14 (+109%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+36%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 54¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+3%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $21 $24 +$4 (+18%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $22 $20 −$2 (-7%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $14 $11 −$2 (-17%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-28%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Yes 56¢ 1¢ $168 $3 −$165 (-98%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $9 $2 −$8 (-83%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Yes 41¢ 1¢ $82 $1 −$81 (-99%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-61%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $26 +$24 +93%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $27 +$23 +83%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $63 +$37 +58%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Brazil? Jun 24 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? Jun 24 $8 −$8 -98%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $66 −$65 -99%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $53 −$52 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $15 −$14 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $32 +$18 +55%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $76 +$24 +32%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $22 −$19 -86%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $4 −$3 -86%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $12 −$9 -72%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 24 $30 +$20 +67%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $133 +$67 +50%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $64 −$63 -99%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $29 −$29 -99%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $16 −$11 -72%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $32 −$14 -44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $22 +$28 +129%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $26 +$24 +93%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $29 +$21 +73%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $69 +$31 +46%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $20 +$30 +146%
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Jun 22 $51 −$27 -53%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $23 +$9 +39%
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $32 +$29 +90%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $31 +$19 +60%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $1 −$1 -53%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $16 −$9 -54%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $8 +$16 +200%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$40 +388%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $28 +$22 +78%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $7 −$6 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $27 −$27 -99%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $29 +$21 +73%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $32 +$18 +57%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $25 +$15 +60%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $29 +$21 +70%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $11 −$10 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $28 +$22 +79%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $29 −$1 -4%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $24 −$20 -86%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $60 +$38 +64%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $29 +$21 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $31 +$19 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 35¢ $36 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 1h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $30 1h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $30 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $26 1h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 65¢ $66 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 62¢ $63 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Brazil? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 14h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 14h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Czechia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $33 16h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 63¢ $32 16h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Qatar 53¢ $27 16h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $27 16h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Czechia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $33 16h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 16h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $16 16h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Qatar 52¢ $26 16h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 62¢ $31 17h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $26 21h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 22h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 75¢ $76 26h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 6¢ $3 26h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 26h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 26h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 26h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $32 38h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $22 38h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 38h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $29 39h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Panama 59¢ $30 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $851.56 · official $851.57 (match) · 450 history records