Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T00:24:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CE
0xceb3…49b2
other · 86 markets active 2h ago
2.0score
−$36 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$35 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$127
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses10 / 74
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)84 / 86
History coverage83d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%
Chart Positions 2 History 84 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $82 $82 +$0 (+0%)
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $27 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $249 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 06 $65 $0 +0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $45 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $619 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 26 $37 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 22 $257 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $212 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $202 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $210 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $419 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $382 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $217 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 05 $202 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 04 $210 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 03 $216 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $399 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $635 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $623 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $418 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 27 $431 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $221 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $202 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $429 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $424 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $434 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $221 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $221 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $432 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $412 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $203 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 12 $388 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $487 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 12 $217 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $224 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $212 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 11 $595 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $224 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 10 $405 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 09 $206 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 09 $385 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $211 $0 -0%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $7 +$5 +72%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $18 +$11 +62%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 08 $166 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 08 $169 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $157 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $162 $0 -0%
Hornets vs. Celtics Apr 08 $16 +$7 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 58% −$12
politics 22% −$4
economics 13% −$3
sports 6% −$16
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $44 1h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 5d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 5d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $48 6d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $48 6d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $45 15d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $45 15d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $27 16d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $27 16d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $65 17d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $37 17d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $37 17d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $45 21d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $45 21d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $31 22d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $32 22d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $82 23d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $35 23d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $35 23d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $36 24d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $36 24d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $202 27d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $202 27d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $210 29d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $210 29d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $203 29d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $203 29d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $212 35d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $212 35d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $218 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 84 -3.3% -12.5% 12% 10% -9.7%
all 84 -3.3% -12.5% 12% 10% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 10% -9.7%
10% -20.9% 8% -18.3%
15% -28.5% 8% -26.2%
20% -35.5% 6% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.80 · official $126.80 (match) · 264 history records