Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:06:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CE 0xceb5…4438 crypto 777 markets active 0h ago coverage 79d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 78d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,138 (-5%) realized −$5,123 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate45%351W / 424L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day39.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$141
7 days−$141
14 days−$141
30 days−$141
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$6,823
world 1% −$143
other 1% −$603
politics 0% $0
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +8.4% -1.9% 48% 41% -13.1%
≤30d 54 +8.4% -1.9% 48% 41% -13.1%
≤90d 775 -4.5% -13.6% 45% 41% -16.4%
all 775 -4.5% -13.6% 45% 41% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 41% -16.4%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 38% -24.4%
15% -29.4% 33% -31.7%
20% -36.3% 28% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +34% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$107 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$5,123
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses351 / 424
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)775 / 777
History coverage79d ⚠
Avg bet$131
Trades / day39.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 775 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 26 $230 −$230 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 26 $86 −$54 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 26 $521 −$100 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 26 $346 −$230 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 26 $229 +$145 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 26 $314 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 26 $425 +$163 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 26 $147 −$126 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 26 $244 +$231 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 26 $151 +$142 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 26 $152 −$118 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 26 $105 +$121 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 26 $89 −$50 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 26 $84 +$108 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 26 $48 −$45 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 26 $89 +$149 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 26 $73 +$37 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 26 $103 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 26 $52 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 26 $143 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 26 $63 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$55 +207%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 26 $65 −$32 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 26 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$34 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 26 $38 +$84 +221%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 26 $21 +$16 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 26 $31 +$11 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 26 $32 −$10 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 26 $37 −$6 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$16 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 26 $21 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 26 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 26 $17 +$20 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 26 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 26 $32 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 26 $13 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 26 $11 +$19 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 26 $13 +$10 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $3 −$2 -70%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $8 +$2 +28%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $3 +$3 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 25 $9 −$7 -87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $20 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $22 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $33 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $42 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $31 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $230 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $105 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $317 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $209 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $260 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $208 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $32 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $210 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $124 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $224 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $151 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $21 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $208 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $105 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $209 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $22 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $73 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $60 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $135 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $106 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $103 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $107 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $148 49m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.05 · official $30.43 (match) · 3500 history records