Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:57:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xceb7…4a1a crypto 234 markets active 0h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$365 (+31%) realized +$364 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate61%139W / 90L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$335
7 days+$331
14 days+$331
30 days+$331
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$274
other 8% +$53
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 219 -5.0% -14.1% 62% 47% +17.2%
≤30d 219 -5.0% -14.1% 62% 47% +17.2%
≤90d 220 -5.5% -14.5% 62% 47% +16.7%
all 229 -6.2% -15.1% 61% 47% +15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 47% +15.3%
10% -23.2% 32% +4.3%
15% -30.7% 22% -5.8%
20% -37.5% 14% -15.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +28% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.05 per $1 lost it wins $3.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized+$364
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses139 / 90
Open positions5
Markets (closed)229 / 234
History coverage134d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 229 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET Down 69¢ 88¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+28%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Up 54¢ 52¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Down 61¢ 48¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-23%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET Down 88¢ 98¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+12%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Up 79¢ 92¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+17%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Down 74¢ 77¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $24 −$15 -64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$3 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $95 +$53 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +10%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $381 +$297 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$1 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $3 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.15 · official $15.07 · 692 history records