Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:20:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xceba…559f world 86 markets active 2h ago coverage 528d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate37%31W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$0
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$7
other 24% −$8
politics 11% −$3
sports 11% −$3
economics 2% $0
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +1.2% -8.5% 45% 9% -9.4%
≤30d 32 +53.8% +39.2% 47% 6% -9.1%
≤90d 80 +36.1% +23.1% 39% 4% -9.5%
all 84 +31.0% +18.5% 37% 4% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.5% 4% -9.9%
10% +7.2% 2% -18.5%
15% -3.2% 2% -26.4%
20% -12.7% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +69% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

528d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses31 / 53
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)84 / 86
History coverage528d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 87¢ 88¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+1%)
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 94¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $86 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $43 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $159 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $43 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $88 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $39 +$1 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $31 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $46 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $11 +$1 +12%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $4 $0 +10%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $114 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $41 $0 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $56 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $62 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $41 +$1 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $36 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $35 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $103 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 31 $33 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $2 $0 -12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $59 +$2 +4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $91 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $39 +$2 +6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $24 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $39 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $39 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 22 $7 −$1 -9%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $60 +$1 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $7 $0 -5%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 18 $39 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $43 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $41 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 16 $42 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $3 $0 -8%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $41 $0 +1%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $121 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $1 $0 -5%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $48 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $126 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $38 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $99 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $78 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $3 $0 -7%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 18 $42 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 17 $38 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $47 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $15 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $28 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $43 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $43 28h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $3 30h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $40 30h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $43 33h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $43 35h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $43 42h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $43 44h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $22 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $22 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $43 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $5 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $38 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $8 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $48 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $17 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $27 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $44 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $39 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 76¢ $39 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $31 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $9 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $22 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $30 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $16 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.13 · official $47.25 (match) · 360 history records