Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:51:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CE 0xcec1…9183 crypto 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+0%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate90%80W / 9L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$5
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$11
other 3% +$3
world 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 51 +0.6% -9.0% 96% 2% -9.2%
≤90d 89 +1.1% -8.6% 90% 2% -9.2%
all 89 +1.1% -8.6% 90% 2% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 2% -9.2%
10% -17.3% 1% -17.9%
15% -25.3% 0% -25.8%
20% -32.6% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×15.65 per $1 lost it wins $15.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses80 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)89 / 90
History coverage74d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $73 $73 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will XRP reach $1.35 on June 17? Jun 18 $70 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.45 on June 17? Jun 18 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on June 17? Jun 17 $70 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 0 Norway? Jun 17 $2 $0 +3%
Will XRP dip to $1.05 on June 15? Jun 16 $70 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.30 June 8-14? Jun 15 $71 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.95 on June 13? Jun 14 $71 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.35 on June 12? Jun 13 $71 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $1.30 on June 11? Jun 12 $69 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 11? Jun 11 $68 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.25 on June 10? Jun 11 $70 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 10? Jun 10 $70 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 on June 9? Jun 10 $69 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 9? Jun 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 9? Jun 09 $56 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.05 on June 8? Jun 09 $68 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 8? Jun 08 $69 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.30 on June 7? Jun 08 $69 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 7? Jun 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.90 on June 7? Jun 07 $60 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.90 on June 6? Jun 07 $65 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.90 on June 6? Jun 06 $65 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.25 on June 5? Jun 06 $68 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $0 $0 -0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 5? Jun 05 $68 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.30 on June 4? Jun 05 $67 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 4? Jun 04 $67 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.05 on June 3? Jun 04 $62 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 3? Jun 03 $66 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.35 on June 2? Jun 03 $63 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 0 Costa Rica? Jun 02 $1 $0 +13%
Will XRP dip to $1.20 on June 1? Jun 02 $65 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 1? Jun 01 $60 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.20 May 25-31? Jun 01 $66 +$1 +1%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on May 31? May 31 $65 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.25 on May 30? May 31 $65 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on May 30? May 30 $66 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 29? May 29 $66 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on May 28? May 29 $65 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.25 on May 27? May 28 $65 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on May 27? May 27 $65 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.45 on May 26? May 27 $65 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 26? May 26 $64 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 25? May 25 $64 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.45 on May 24? May 25 $64 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 24? May 24 $64 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.10 on May 23? May 24 $64 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.60 on May 22? May 23 $64 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.25 on May 21? May 22 $64 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.45 on May 20? May 21 $63 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $18 1h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $55 1h
Will XRP reach $1.35 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $70 13h
Will XRP reach $1.45 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $2 22h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 0 Norway? BUY No 97¢ $2 32h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $70 32h
Will XRP dip to $1.05 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $70 2d
Will XRP reach $1.30 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $71 3d
Will XRP dip to $0.95 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $71 4d
Will XRP reach $1.35 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $41 5d
Will XRP reach $1.35 on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $30 5d
Will XRP reach $1.30 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $10 6d
Will XRP reach $1.30 on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $59 6d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $68 6d
Will XRP reach $1.25 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $70 7d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $70 7d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $69 8d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $13 8d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $56 8d
Will XRP dip to $1.05 on June 8? SELL No 100¢ $68 8d
Will XRP dip to $1.05 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $68 9d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $69 10d
Will XRP reach $1.30 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $69 10d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 10d
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.90 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $60 10d
Will XRP dip to $0.90 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $65 11d
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.90 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $65 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $0 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 12d
Will XRP reach $1.25 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $68 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.75 · official $72.75 (match) · 200 history records