Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:27:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CE 0xcec8…4bed crypto 683 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d only
✗ bot/MM pace (89 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$549 (-3%) realized −$549 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate58%409W / 291L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day89.5pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$113
7 days−$96
14 days−$84
30 days−$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$24
sports 12% −$25
other 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (89 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 +61.6% +46.2% 58% 49% -15.9%
≤30d 677 +11.4% +0.8% 60% 33% -10.1%
≤90d 700 +10.9% +0.4% 58% 32% -10.2%
all 700 +10.9% +0.4% 58% 32% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover89.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.4% 32% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -9.2% 23% -18.8%
15% -18.0% 6% -26.6%
20% -26.0% 3% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$549
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses409 / 291
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)700 / 683
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$24
Trades / day89.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 700 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Hamad Medjedovic 82¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Arthur Rinderknech 74¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka Jun 16 $8 +$2 +32%
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jun 16 $7 +$3 +35%
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon Jun 16 $8 +$2 +32%
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux Jun 16 $26 −$3 -10%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $8 +$2 +30%
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata Jun 16 $7 +$3 +37%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $7 −$3 -43%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $70 −$2 -3%
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Jun 15 $8 +$1 +11%
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Jun 15 $7 +$3 +35%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $8 +$2 +25%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $7 +$2 +33%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $7 +$3 +35%
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 15 $7 +$3 +36%
Dublin: Alexis Galarneau vs Francesco Maestrelli Jun 15 $8 +$2 +28%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za Jun 15 $7 +$3 +36%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $188 +$9 +5%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $122 +$12 +10%
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 15 $374 −$103 -28%
Royan: Pierre Delage vs Svyatoslav Gulin Jun 15 $7 +$3 +37%
Parma: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 15 $7 +$3 +35%
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 15 $7 +$3 +35%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $27 −$3 -10%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 15 $8 +$2 +27%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 15 $8 +$2 +31%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw Jun 15 $76 +$3 +3%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 15 $7 +$3 +36%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 15 $8 +$2 +30%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 15 $8 +$2 +26%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 15 $27 +$4 +15%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 15 $28 +$4 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic SELL Hamad Medjedovic 99¢ $84 16m
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Hamad Medjedovic 82¢ $70 18m
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic SELL Hamad Medjedovic 46¢ $13 24m
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka SELL Oliver Crawford 99¢ $10 43m
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Hamad Medjedovic 73¢ $21 55m
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka BUY Oliver Crawford 75¢ $8 1h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic SELL Arthur Rinderknech 41¢ $4 1h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Arthur Rinderknech 74¢ $7 1h
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere SELL Laslo Djere 99¢ $10 1h
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere BUY Laslo Djere 73¢ $7 1h
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon SELL Daniel Rincon 99¢ $10 1h
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon BUY Daniel Rincon 75¢ $8 1h
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux SELL Cosme de Ravel 99¢ $24 2h
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux BUY Cosme de Ravel 73¢ $18 3h
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux SELL Geoffrey Blancaneaux 48¢ $5 3h
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux BUY Geoffrey Blancaneaux 73¢ $7 3h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino SELL Adrian Mannarino 99¢ $10 4h
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata SELL Ryo Tabata 99¢ $10 4h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 76¢ $8 4h
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata BUY Ryo Tabata 72¢ $7 4h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Sho Shimabukuro 42¢ $4 5h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato SELL Marco Cecchinato 99¢ $53 5h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato SELL Marco Cecchinato 99¢ $7 5h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 72¢ $7 5h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato BUY Marco Cecchinato 74¢ $46 5h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato SELL Marco Cecchinato 46¢ $10 5h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato BUY Marco Cecchinato 75¢ $18 5h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato SELL Carlo Alberto Caniato 48¢ $5 5h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato BUY Carlo Alberto Caniato 70¢ $7 5h
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle SELL Henry Searle 84¢ $8 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.60 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records