Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:39:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CE 0xceca…4800 sports 310 markets active 1h ago coverage 417d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,215 (+6%) realized +$1,218 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%138W / 171L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$230est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$358now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$155
7 days−$56
14 days+$941
30 days+$1,781
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$970
other 2% +$113
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +17.1% +5.9% 67% 67% -13.6%
≤30d 54 +10.8% +0.2% 56% 54% +6.9%
≤90d 102 +10.3% -0.2% 47% 45% +4.0%
all 309 +6.0% -4.1% 45% 44% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 44% -4.3%
10% -13.3% 42% -13.4%
15% -21.6% 41% -21.8%
20% -29.3% 37% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$51 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

417d coverage
Net worth$358
Realized+$1,218
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses138 / 171
Est. fees paid−$230
Open positions1
Markets (closed)309 / 310
History coverage417d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 309 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces Las Vegas Aces 62¢ 62¢ $361 $358 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 89 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings Jun 21 $225 −$157 -70%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 20 $1 +$1 +109%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 19 $241 −$240 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$41 +40%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 18 $102 +$111 +110%
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 18 $101 −$86 -85%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 18 $235 +$201 +86%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $148 +$25 +17%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $100 +$48 +48%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,005 +$1,734 +172%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-11.5) Jun 12 $343 −$339 -99%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $99 −$53 -54%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $96 +$46 +48%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 11 $207 +$246 +119%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $465 −$258 -56%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5 Jun 10 $20 +$6 +28%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 10 $240 +$120 +50%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1,025 −$481 -47%
PortlandFire vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 08 $172 +$78 +45%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty Jun 07 $109 +$77 +70%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $239 −$237 -99%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 05 $102 −$100 -98%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 05 $102 −$85 -83%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $177 +$250 +141%
Toronto Tempo vs. New York Liberty Jun 03 $100 −$98 -98%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 03 $1 $0 -5%
Chicago Sky vs. Washington Mystics Jun 03 $299 +$327 +109%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks Jun 02 $348 −$343 -98%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 02 $30 +$19 +64%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks May 31 $32 +$69 +216%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $231 +$256 +111%
Atlanta Dream vs. PortlandFire May 30 $35 −$34 -98%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Washington Mystics May 30 $63 −$25 -40%
Indiana Fever vs. Golden State Valkyries May 29 $30 +$30 +99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $201 +$130 +64%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions May 28 $269 +$134 +50%
Connecticut Sun vs. PortlandFire May 28 $241 −$49 -20%
Toronto Tempo vs. Chicago Sky May 28 $100 +$5 +5%
Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty May 28 $124 +$61 +49%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $253 −$26 -10%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions May 26 $51 −$16 -31%
PortlandFire vs. New York Liberty May 26 $51 +$96 +188%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $99 +$72 +73%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $735 +$383 +52%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Real Madrid May 24 $102 −$98 -96%
Portland Fire vs. Toronto Tempo May 23 $6 −$5 -79%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Chicago Sky May 23 $351 +$290 +83%
Shenzhen Leopards vs. Zhejiang Lions May 23 $248 +$103 +41%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shenzhen Leopards May 23 $98 −$98 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 62¢ $365 1h
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 51¢ $23 4h
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings SELL Dallas Wings 7¢ $23 5h
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 59¢ $202 5h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Minnesota Lynx 100¢ $3 26h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Minnesota Lynx 47¢ $1 27h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever SELL Indiana Fever 0¢ $1 2d
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 48¢ $124 2d
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 49¢ $117 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 73¢ $142 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 2d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury SELL Las Vegas Aces 100¢ $213 3d
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Dallas Wings 10¢ $15 3d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Las Vegas Aces 47¢ $102 3d
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Dallas Wings 64¢ $101 3d
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Washington Mystics 53¢ $235 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $172 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $148 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $148 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $100 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $2 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $505 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $498 9d
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-11.5) BUY PortlandFire 56¢ $343 9d
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire SELL PortlandFire 16¢ $46 9d
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire BUY PortlandFire 33¢ $99 9d
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream BUY Atlanta Dream 54¢ $101 9d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm SELL Los Angeles Sparks 100¢ $141 10d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm BUY Los Angeles Sparks 67¢ $96 10d
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo SELL Toronto Tempo 100¢ $452 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $358.25 · official $358.25 (match) · 629 history records