Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:36:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xceca…3f67 world 500 markets active 18h ago coverage 198d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$598 (-0%) realized −$1,697 · open +$1,099
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate68%315W / 149L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$757per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$41,787now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$630
7 days−$214
14 days+$655
30 days+$2,739
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$870
other 28% +$2,880
crypto 6% −$1,875
politics 5% +$195
sports 3% −$536
culture 1% −$369
tech 1% −$9
finance 1% −$71
economics 0% +$14
weather 0% −$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -26.4% -33.4% 65% 20% -10.6%
≤30d 72 -5.4% -14.4% 82% 26% -7.4%
≤90d 230 -13.4% -21.7% 73% 22% -9.8%
all 464 -9.1% -17.8% 68% 27% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.8% 27% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -25.6% 13% -18.6%
15% -32.8% 7% -26.5%
20% -39.4% 5% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$759) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$163 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

198d coverage
Net worth$41,787
Realized−$1,697
Unrealized+$1,099
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses315 / 149
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions35
Markets (closed)464 / 500
History coverage198d
Avg bet$757
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 464 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 88¢ 94¢ $6,914 $7,346 +$431 (+6%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 92¢ 99¢ $3,954 $4,250 +$296 (+7%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 57¢ 48¢ $4,547 $3,801 −$745 (-16%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No 88¢ 98¢ $2,757 $3,090 +$333 (+12%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No 96¢ 100¢ $2,563 $2,672 +$109 (+4%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 93¢ 99¢ $2,024 $2,146 +$122 (+6%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 98¢ 100¢ $2,009 $2,050 +$41 (+2%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? No 97¢ 100¢ $1,774 $1,825 +$51 (+3%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 71¢ 92¢ $1,100 $1,430 +$330 (+30%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 93¢ $1,400 $1,415 +$15 (+1%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 85¢ 84¢ $1,400 $1,375 −$25 (-2%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 76¢ 68¢ $1,478 $1,330 −$148 (-10%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? No 94¢ 98¢ $1,168 $1,212 +$44 (+4%)
Ebola pandemic in 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $1,125 $1,119 −$6 (-1%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 95¢ $1,041 $1,064 +$23 (+2%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 90¢ 99¢ $800 $872 +$72 (+9%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? Yes 54¢ 60¢ $700 $776 +$76 (+11%)
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? No 90¢ 97¢ $700 $751 +$51 (+7%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? No 37¢ 50¢ $500 $675 +$175 (+35%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 68¢ $722 $579 −$143 (-20%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19? No 97¢ 97¢ $500 $500 +$0 (+0%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 83¢ 88¢ $300 $320 +$20 (+7%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 83¢ 88¢ $200 $211 +$11 (+5%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 92¢ $200 $208 +$8 (+4%)
New pandemic in 2026? No 89¢ 89¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $325 +$64 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $612 +$120 +20%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 16 $462 +$159 +34%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $1,860 +$164 +9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $1,300 +$64 +5%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 15 $700 +$58 +8%
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $882 +$43 +5%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $79 +$18 +23%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $60 −$60 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $1,691 +$14 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $3,514 +$90 +3%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $121 −$119 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $800 +$35 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $4,147 +$130 +3%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $1,259 −$850 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 10? Jun 10 $52 −$41 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 10? Jun 10 $46 −$45 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $12 −$11 -94%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $5,396 +$121 +2%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026? Jun 10 $101 +$12 +12%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $429 +$21 +5%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 09 $56 +$6 +10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $6,472 +$87 +1%
Will OpenAI file for an IPO by June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $801 +$13 +2%
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $899 +$9 +1%
Chirayu Rana divorced? Jun 04 $301 +$17 +6%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $100 +$71 +71%
Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30? Jun 04 $849 +$5 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $18,505 +$157 +1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 03 $700 +$449 +64%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? Jun 03 $20 +$3 +14%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $3,377 +$504 +15%
Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations? Jun 01 $321 +$16 +5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $741 +$45 +6%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 01 $2,987 +$65 +2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $4,382 +$344 +8%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? Jun 01 $3,283 +$217 +7%
Kash Patel out by May 31? Jun 01 $1,757 +$255 +14%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $5,099 +$639 +12%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $795 +$95 +12%
Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? Jun 01 $200 +$10 +5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,816 +$140 +8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3,838 +$939 +24%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 01 $1,237 +$384 +31%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $100 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $389 17h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 18h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 86¢ $104 18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 91¢ $99 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 19h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 100¢ $199 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 89¢ $25 19h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $600 20h
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY Yes $15 20h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $100 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $732 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $430 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $131 24h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $621 24h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $63 24h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $100 26h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $101 26h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $100 27h
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $100 30h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19? BUY No 97¢ $200 30h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19? BUY No 97¢ $300 30h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $35 31h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $100 32h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $100 32h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $100 33h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $100 33h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $200 33h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $100 33h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $100 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41,786.59 · official $41,778.13 (match) · 3167 history records