Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:45:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CE 0xcecc…5831 other 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$49 (-16%) realized −$49 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate50%10W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$68
sports 42% +$19
crypto 4% +$7
world 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +33.9% +21.1% 50% 40% -23.3%
≤30d 20 +33.9% +21.1% 50% 40% -23.3%
≤90d 20 +33.9% +21.1% 50% 40% -23.3%
all 20 +33.9% +21.1% 50% 40% -23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.1% 40% -23.3%
10% +9.5% 40% -30.7%
15% -1.0% 40% -37.4%
20% -10.7% 30% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late +100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$11 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses10 / 10
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage4d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$1 +2%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $55 +$6 +10%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +219%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +36%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $71 −$70 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +89%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $8 +$13 +159%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -23%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 +$7 +63%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 +$15 +182%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -53%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +41%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 7m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $52 8m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 30m
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $52 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 96¢ $50 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 65¢ $9 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $3 3h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 5h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $7 5h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $71 8h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 19h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 92¢ $18 24h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 25h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 29¢ $2 25h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 26h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 26h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 27h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 27h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 27h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $13 27h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 28h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 28h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 28h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $10 28h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 74¢ $0 28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 74¢ $18 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.89 · official $9.89 (match) · 42 history records