Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T14:00:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

CE 0xcecc…e227 crypto 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$5 (-2%) realized −$5 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip

Net edge-21%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate59%13W / 9L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$14per market

Trades / day10.6pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit95%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-14.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	-0.9%	-10.3%	62%	52%	-12.1%
≤30d	22	-5.4%	-14.4%	59%	50%	-13.0%
≤90d	22	-5.4%	-14.4%	59%	50%	-13.0%
all	22	-5.4%	-14.4%	59%	50%	-13.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.6 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-14.4%	50%	-13.0%
10%	-22.6%	36%	-21.4%
15%	-30.1%	27%	-29.0%
20%	-36.9%	14%	-35.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 28% · top 2 42% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

15% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -11% → late +0% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.78 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$5

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)59%

Wins / losses13 / 9

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions0

Markets (closed)22 / 22

History coverage7d

Avg bet$14

Trades / day10.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 22 Trades

no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Jun 28	$10	+$4	+40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Jun 28	$10	+$3	+32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Jun 28	$15	$0	-2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Jun 28	$20	−$9	-43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Jun 28	$10	+$5	+47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Jun 28	$10	+$2	+19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Jun 28	$26	−$2	-7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Jun 28	$46	−$18	-39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Jun 28	$15	+$4	+25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Jun 28	$5	−$5	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Jun 28	$16	+$14	+91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Jun 28	$10	+$7	+66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Jun 28	$5	+$2	+45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Jun 28	$10	+$7	+70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Jun 28	$10	−$10	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Jun 28	$15	+$1	+6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Jun 28	$36	−$15	-43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Jun 28	$5	+$1	+19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Jun 28	$25	$0	+1%
Korea Republic to score first vs. South Africa?	Jun 24	$2	−$2	-99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Jun 24	$1	$0	+16%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 21	$3	−$3	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	SELL Up	100¢	$14	33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	BUY Up	70¢	$5	37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	BUY Up	70¢	$5	37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	SELL Down	100¢	$13	39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	BUY Down	75¢	$5	42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	BUY Down	74¢	$5	42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	BUY Up	93¢	$5	47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	BUY Up	92¢	$5	47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	SELL Down	17¢	$4	47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	BUY Down	19¢	$5	47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$12	48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	BUY Down	85¢	$5	51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	BUY Down	84¢	$5	51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$5	54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$5	54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	SELL Down	98¢	$15	58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	BUY Down	65¢	$5	59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	BUY Down	65¢	$5	59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$12	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	BUY Up	82¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	BUY Up	82¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	BUY Up	88¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	BUY Up	88¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	SELL Up	50¢	$12	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	BUY Up	58¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	BUY Up	58¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	BUY Up	58¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	BUY Down	55¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	BUY Down	55¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	BUY Down	53¢	$5	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 80 history records